It’s finally here. We finally get election results starting tonight, with control of the White House, Senate and House all very much up in the air. But keep in mind it could be days before we know which party controls the White House and U.S. House, given the time it will take to count votes.
Election watching tip: David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter believes we’ll be able to get an early read on the election trends in a handful of counties in Georgia and North Carolina, including two in districts represented on the House Agriculture Committee.
Those bellwether counties include Baldwin County in Georgia’s 8th District, represented by Republican Austin Scott, and Nash County in North Carolina’s 1st District, represented by Democrat Don Davis. Joe Biden carried both counties narrowly in 2020. If Donald Trump flips these counties, it would be a good sign for his prospects nationally.
By the way: Wasserman cautions that even though the polls have been remarkably close, that doesn’t mean the outcome will be razor thin.
Gridlock coming? Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball crew released its election predictions Monday. The forecast: Kamala Harris wins the White House, but Republicans take the Senate, 52 seats to 48. Democrats win the House, but just barely: 218-217.
Something to watch: An often-overlooked but significant factor could be overseas ballots. Nearly 3 million Americans live abroad, meaning that even a small percentage of those voters could make the difference in a particular state.
Their votes also could delay the results of the election in especially tight races or states — coming from abroad, they often take longer to count.
In 2020, about 135,000 overseas voters cast ballots.
Polls: ABC News’ 538 site puts it this way: “Trump and Harris have about an even chance to win.” In 100 of 538’s simulations, Trump wins 52 times and Harris 48.
In the Senate, Montana Democrat Jon Tester, an organic grain farmer, is facing tough odds in a race against Republican former Navy SEAL and Bridger Aerospace CEO Tim Sheehy, who also operates a cattle ranch. The race has been rated “lean-Republican.”
The Senate races in Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania, meanwhile, are all rated toss-ups. Incumbent Nebraska Republican Sen. Deb Fischer is facing a tighter-than-expected matchup with Dan Osborn, an independent who has run a campaign focused on a “right to repair” agricultural equipment and refocusing crop insurance subsidies to smaller farms.
In the House: One in four members of the House Ag Committee members is facing a competitive race today, according to Cook Political Report ratings.
Eighteen of the 54 panel members’ re-election races are considered “competitive.” This includes three of the four Democrats who voted to advance a farm bill out of committee earlier this year.
What we’re watching: Some of these races are still likely to favor the incumbent, but races in key California and Iowa ag districts remain toss-ups. The outcome of these races could determine which party controls the House majority, but major shake-ups could alter the House committee roster.
Read more about the key competitive districts here.
MAHA and MAGA push through to Election Day
The “Make America Healthy Again” movement may have a pick for Ag Secretary: Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, an advocate of raw milk who threw his hat in this summer.
On X on Saturday, former vice presidential candidate for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Nicole Shanahan, said, “Bringing back REAL food to America means supporting local farmers and ending the big ag lobby. @RepThomasMassie has every incentive to do this. Bringing him to the USDA would help ensure free speech, real science, and real food are brought back to the American people. Let’s get out and vote!”
Shanahan was responding to an earlier post from Massie: “The people who say there are no benefits from raw milk versus pasteurized milk are either ignorant or lying. Let’s start with this fact: A lot of individuals, myself included, can’t digest pasteurized homogenized milk, but we can easily digest and enjoy any amount of raw milk.”
Kennedy has also touted raw milk, drawing applause recently at an event in Pennsylvania when he mentioned an Amish farmer who has faced punishment for selling raw milk.
Kennedy and his allies have continued to make their case for Trump heading into Election Day. On Monday, Texas GOP Rep. Chip Roy posted on X in support of the “Make America Healthy Again” movement, saying there were two steps to #HealthcareFreedom. Those include ending “cronyism feeding us poisoned food” and making it easier for consumers to get “direct primary care.”
In response, RFK Jr. said Roy hit “the nail squarely on the head. Americans want to be healthy.”
FDA, EPA announce first-ever registration of foodborne pathogen ag water treatment
Federal agencies have approved a treatment for foodborne pathogens in agricultural water used to grow produce, which they say could be a landmark achievement in efforts to approve food safety.
FDA and EPA announced the successful product registration Monday. The treatment product follows FDA’s new rule on agricultural water and is expected to specifically combat salmonella and E. coli.
Previously, chemical treatments for pre-harvest agricultural water were limited to managing algae, biofilm formation and produce rot. FDA and EPA recently developed new protocols to support this registration and others in the future specifically targeted at foodborne pathogens.
SAF company selects Minnesota as site for $5 billion facility
DG Fuels has selected Moorhead, Minnesota, as the site for a $5 billion facility expected to produce 193 million gallons of annual sustainable aviation fuel starting in 2030.
The facility would use agricultural and wood waste feedstocks in SAF production, according to a release. The Minnesota SAF Hub, a coalition of Bank of America, Delta Airlines and more, will work with DG Fuels and the city to address the next steps in the project, including aggregating feedstocks.
Why it matters: The 193 million gallons the facility is expected to produce is about half of the fuel used at the MSP International Airport.
Final word: Thanks to early voting, both in person and by mail, voter turnout nationwide is already nearly half of what it was in 2020. That election set a modern record, with more than 158 million Americans voting, about two-thirds of those eligible.
