U.S. food prices are more than 25% higher than they were in 2019. Families feel it every time they go to the grocery store, especially when their budgets are already stretched thin. They’re understandably frustrated and concerned about their family’s economic and nutritional well-being, and as they plan their Thanksgiving menus, they may make the hard choice to trim back the number of sides or size of the turkey to make the budget work.
There are many reasons food prices are higher, and it’s happening all over the world. Supply chain disruptions. Avian flu outbreaks. Higher operating costs. But one doesn’t get enough attention: climate change.
Crops and livestock have been bred to thrive within a specific range of temperatures and rainfall levels, but those optimal conditions are changing quickly. From drought-stressed pastureland in Nebraska to flood-ravaged vegetable fields in western North Carolina, conditions are not normal.
America’s farms and food are on the frontlines of more extreme weather, and we owe it to farmers, ranchers, and families gathering around the Thanksgiving table to make food production more resilient.
This year is on track to be the hottest on record. This has had ripple effects throughout our agricultural system, but the beef supply chain was particularly hard hit. Consumers can see the impacts on their grocery store receipts.
Drought and heat in the central U.S. made pastures too dry for cattle to graze in the summer and lowered how much forage could be harvested and stored to feed cattle through the winter. Faced with having to purchase expensive grain to feed their cattle, many ranchers opted to reduce their herd sizes. Less supply is a big reason why beef prices at grocery stores have gone up more than 4% in the past year.
Traditional Thanksgiving favorites are at risk of climate impacts, such as cutting supplies and raising prices.
Last year, wheat yields dropped to the lowest in 50 years in Kansas due to drought. It was a warning for the bread that makes up Thanksgiving stuffing, especially as other parts of the world also saw concurrent drops in their wheat yields. Classic mashed potato varieties like Russets prefer cool temperatures. As daytime temperatures rise in Idaho, heat-stressed potatoes will be more susceptible to viruses and pests. Cranberries similarly are sensitive to higher temperatures, and warming in Massachusetts could lead to smaller or fewer cranberries.
We don’t have to accept a future with fewer of our favorite holiday foods, but we do need to be clear-eyed about the risks ahead and do everything we can to support farmers and ranchers in continuing to grow food on a changing planet.
Governments and companies must be careful not to incentivize short-term Band-Aids that come with lasting consequences and often actively discourage adapting to new weather realities. Constantly ratcheting up how much fertilizer is applied to overcome yield declines will lead to more extreme weather and worse water quality. Overusing already stressed water sources to try and irrigate our way out of droughts will lead to long-term economic and environmental harm for farmers and other communities reliant on this water.
Instead, adapting to the new reality with scientifically tested approaches can do a lot of good now and in the future. The public and private sectors must invest in adaptive management practices, research on expected impacts, and development of more resilient crop varieties that better tolerate climate-driven stressors like soils that swing between too wet and too dry.
This could mean financing for soil health and other resilient farming practices, looking at whether Indigenous crops or methods are more suitable, or identifying genes from the heirloom and perennial cousins of today’s crops that will be useful in a climate-changed world. We must also see an investment in accompanying tools and supply chain infrastructure to build demand for adaptive crops and livestock.
The public and private sectors need to support the use of solutions already available today, as well. Existing U.S. conservation programs, for example, help farmers and ranchers reduce climate vulnerability and protect food production. For every one farmer or rancher who participates in these programs, an average of two more who want to participate are turned away. Expanding access is an investment in our food security.
Consumers can do their part, too, starting with digging into sweet potato casseroles and pies this Thanksgiving. Sweet potatoes, which originated in the tropics, don’t mind hotter growing conditions and are a naturally climate-resilient food.
As extreme weather increases, let’s invest in resilience to help the people who grow our food keep their farms and ranches profitable and productive for generations to come. That’s an essential foundation for an abundant — and affordable — food supply at Thanksgiving and throughout the year.
Britt Groosman is vice president of agriculture, water and food at the Environmental Defense Fund.