World agricultural production will need to increase 47% to 61% by 2050 from a 2011 baseline, depending on the rate of global population growth, USDA economists say.
The 47% increase in available calories is based on medium population growth. The 61% increase would be needed under high population growth, according to a report from the Economic Research Service.
Over the last 30 years, global food production has increased 61% while population grew 45%.
The study says total calories available in food groups such as fruits, vegetables, vegetable oils and animal products have been increasing faster than population growth. Grains are the only food group to have increased at the same rate as the world population.
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In countries such as China and Brazil, rising incomes have driven significant increases in consumption of animal products, almost doubling the calories from animal products per capita.
The ERS research team sees six major drivers of agricultural production: population, per capita income, dietary preference, agricultural productivity, climate change and biofuel production.
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