USDA on Friday lowered its forecasts for the soybean and corn harvests based on the latest conditions, but the cuts weren’t enough to raise the department’s price estimates for this year’s crops.
USDA now estimates soybean production this year at 4.46 billion bushels, 3% below the October forecast but 7% more than farmers harvested a year ago. USDA reduced its estimated average yield this fall by 1.4 bushels to 51.7 per acre.
In its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA also trimmed its forecast for soybean exports by 25 million bushels for the 2024-25 marketing year to 1.8 billion, citing “lower supplies and sales to date.” Estimated ending stocks for the marketing year were lowered 80 million bushels to 470 million.
The forecast for corn production was reduced by less than 1% to 15.1 billion bushels as the estimated average yield was trimmed by 0.7 bushels to 183.1 bushels per acre. The estimate for ending stocks was cut 61 million bushels to 1.938 billion.
USDA maintained its estimated farm-gate prices for corn and soybeans at $4.10 and $10.80 per bushel respectively, down from $4.55 and $12.40 on last year's crop.
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In a separate report Friday, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization said its index of prices for global food commodities jumped 2% in October to its highest level since April 2023, driven by higher prices for vegetable oils, grains and dairy products.
The FAO Food Price Index hit 127.4 points last month, 5.5% above its level a year ago but 20.5% off its peak in March 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The index for vegetable oils shot up 7.3% in October, led by price increases for palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oils. The increase in soybean oil prices was due to “firm global demand amid limited supplies of alternative vegetable oils,” the FAO said.
The index for dairy prices was 1.9% higher in October. The index for grain prices rose 0.8%, with wheat prices rising because of concerns about weather conditions in the European Union and other regions.
Corn prices “continued their upward trend in October, driven partly by strong domestic demand in Brazil and transport challenges in some parts of the country due to low river levels,” FAO said. Dry conditions in Argentina also have delayed corn planting there.
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