A new report from the Agriculture Department’s Economic Research Service projects the nation’s pork producers could soon be sending more product overseas than their poultry counterparts.
Using data from the Agricultural Baseline Projections at ERS, economists project American pork exports will surpass chicken shipments in 2028 and continue growing at a faster pace through 2033.
“Efficiency gains in U.S. hog production and pork processing are expected to continue to enhance the sector’s international competitiveness,” ERS says. “In addition, European Union (EU) policies are expected to reduce growth of that region’s pork exports, and the United States is projected to surpass the EU as the world’s leading pork exporter in 2025.”
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Despite being overtaken by pork volume, poultry trade is projected to continue setting records throughout the forecast period, eventually topping 8 billion pounds in 2033.
The report also projects the current downturn in the cattle cycle could cause exports to drop further than the eight-year-low projected in 2024. In 2024, ERS expects a 5% decline in beef trade in 2025 before a gradual increase through 2031 as supplies rebound.
The gains in exports are not expected to hinder domestic availability. Production of beef, poultry and pork are all expected to increase faster than exports. ERS projects per capita meat consumption will be higher in 2033 than 2024, with increases across pork (up 1.7 pounds), beef (up 2.6 pounds) and broiler (7.3 pounds) consumption.
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