Donald Trump is doubling down on his prediction that farmers are going to sell a lot more of their crops domestically because of his trade wars. Trump imposed higher tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico on Tuesday. And in his speech Tuesday night to a joint session of Congress, Trump reiterated his plan to impose reciprocal tariffs starting April 2.
“It may be a little bit of an adjustment period,” Trump warned. But he asserted that farmers would have “a field day” because of tariffs on U.S. ag imports.
“So, to our farmers have a lot of fun. I love you, too,” Trump told Congress.
Keep in mind: Many commodities, including soybeans, wheat and cotton, are heavily dependent on export markets.
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Soybean grower pushback: Tariffs are not ‘fun’
Most of the American Soybean Association’s members are likely strong Trump supporters, but they're also concerned about the tariffs and related impacts. Ahead of Trump’s speech, ASA issued a strongly worded press release on Tuesday titled, “Tariffs Are Not ‘Fun’ & Farmers Are Frustrated” in response to a presidential social media post on Monday.
U.S. agriculture lost $27 billion in the last trade war and soybeans accounted for 71% of it. As a result, ASA CEO Steve Censky said there is “heightened sensitivity among our producers.” Censky said his farmer leaders wanted to send a strong message about exports and the potential impacts on input prices for fertilizer, potash, and other inputs.
One big difference now and then: In 2018, most soybean farmers were in better financial shape and able to withstand the negative impacts from a trade war. Now, Censky said prices are down 50% from three years ago and input prices are still high and sticky. Plus, during the last trade war growers watched Brazil permanently expand acreage which “continues to haunt us today around the world.”
Grassley: Lawmakers likely to press administration for tariff waivers
Iowa Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley expects lawmakers to appeal to Trump for tariff waivers and says he’s ready to ask for carve-outs for certain ag inputs.
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Grassley told reporters, “There's going to be some requests of individual senators and congressmen to ask for some waivers.” Grassley will push for exemptions on piglets and reiterate his request for a potash exclusion. U.S. farmers rely on Canada for more than 80% of potash supply.
“We're getting baby pigs almost daily from Canada,” Grassley said. “A big tariff on those pigs would be catastrophic for pork in Iowa.”
For more on the tariffs as well as an in-depth look at NRCS staff firings and Trump’s FDA nominee, read our weekly Agri-Pulse newsletter.
Hong Kong operator to sell Panama ports under U.S. scrutiny
Hong Kong’s CK Hutchison says it will sell the two ports in Panama at the center of U.S. security concerns to an American consortium.
A statement from Hutchison says an investment group led by U.S. asset manager BlackRock will receive the two ports at each end of the Panama Canal, along with more than 40 others. The deal is worth nearly $23 billion.
Lawmakers and the president have raised concerns in recent months over Chinese involvement in infrastructure projects around the Panama Canal. The two ports had been a lightning rod for worried policymakers.
Take note: The Panama Canal is a critical trade route for U.S. agriculture, particularly soybeans. But the Soy Transportation Coalition’s Mike Steenhoek told Agri-Pulse before the deal was revealed that he had seen no nefarious activities.
“We've seen, I think, very straightforward, very fair operations of the canal,” Steenhoek said. Scrubbing a Hong Kong company’s involvement from two nearby ports may do little to curb surveillance.
One-year CR text expected this weekend
House Republicans plan to finalize by this weekend a new continuing resolution to keep the government funded until the end of the fiscal year. Democrats still aren’t on board with the plan. They want assurances Trump will abide by spending levels.
House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole, R-Okla., says appropriators could quickly pivot to a shorter CR to avert a government shutdown.
Meanwhile: Elon Musk is expected to meet with GOP lawmakers Wednesday night to discuss recent DOGE cuts. It comes as some Republicans have voiced concerns with how federal staff cuts and funding decisions are impacting their districts.
Cole said he has no expectations for the meeting. He says he hopes Musk consults with members before taking significant action in their districts.
HPAI, aMPV a ‘one-two punch’ for turkey producers
Turkey producers are not only battling a nationwide outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza, but are also seeing avian metapneumovirus, another respiratory disease, spread through their flocks, one farmer told a panel of lawmakers Tuesday.
John Zimmerman, a former chairman of the National Turkey Federation, told members of the House Ag Committee Tuesday that turkey producers are seeing aMPV wipe out between 30% to 50% of their flocks just as they are dealing with devastating HPAI outbreaks. Many farmers are choosing to exit the turkey industry as a result, he said.
Despite aMPV’s lower death rate, it can “significantly reduce” egg sets in breeder stock, impacting future generations of turkeys, Zimmerman said. While producers are compensated for some HPAI losses, the government offers no indemnity or assistance for aMPV, he added.
"While HPAI grabs headlines for its effect on egg and milk prices, aMPV has also killed millions of turkeys,” Zimmerman said.
Final word
“We’ve got to stick with sound science, good research and risk-based assessments, not feelings.” – American Soybean Association President Caleb Ragland, addressing criticism of seed oils.
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