Dry weather has helped Midwestern and Southern farmers speed through most of this fall’s corn and soybean harvest but also has hindered the transport of their grain down the Mississippi River. As many growers park their combines for the year, they're hoping rainstorms can replenish soils parched and waterways shrunk by months of drought.
Storms that rolled through the heartland this week are now providing some needed moisture, particularly for the Mississippi, which is seeing its third year of low water. But more precipitation will likely be needed in November and December to sustain river levels and ensure farmers across the U.S. have sufficient moisture to support next year’s crops.
Brad Rippey“This is a great sign,” USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey said of the rainstorms that passed through the Central U.S. earlier this week.
“But the fact that it’s so dry leading into this, we’re probably not going to get a huge permanent bump on the riverways. … At the same time, it’s not going to fully cure the moisture deficits that have built up, in some cases, over a multi-year period.”
As of last Tuesday morning, 87.2% of the area of the lower 48 states was experiencing drought conditions, the largest percentage seen in at least 25 years, Rippey said. Twenty-five percent of farmland topsoil across the lower 48 U.S. states was “very short” of moisture as of Nov. 3, while 37% was “short,” according to National Agricultural Statistics Service estimates.
Still, the drought offered some harvest-season benefits for farmers, drying out grain and limiting disruptions that could keep them out of their fields.
“Almost everyone I talk to has said that this is probably the easiest and nicest harvest they’ve ever had in their lifetime,” said Justin Sherlock, who farms near Dazey, North Dakota.
Sherlock said he’s only had two rain delays all harvest. He’s been able to start early nearly every day, not worrying about slowdowns caused by frost or dew, and has sped through his soybean harvest at a pace he's rarely seen.
While Sherlock’s still got some corn to harvest, most of that delay comes from needing to complete work on a bin that got damaged by high winds that blew through in the early spring. Still, he’s well ahead of where he could be. Some years, he said, it can take until Thanksgiving or later to finish the corn harvest.
As of Monday, growers had finished harvesting corn on 91% of the crop's acreage in 18 top-producing states, compared with 78% on the same day last year, according to National Agricultural Statistics Service estimates. That’s far above the 75% average of harvested acres these states saw on this date between 2019 and 2023.
Harvest was complete Monday for 94% of the soybean acreage across 18 states, surpassing the 89% that had been harvested on Nov. 3 of last year. It’s also above the 85% average for that date over the prior three years.
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Ohio farmer Ben Bowsher finished harvesting his corn last week. He wrapped up the soybean harvest last month. Because his crops were “bone dry,” Bowsher said he didn’t even need to use a grain dryer to prepare them for storage. His yields, he said, were “average.”
“I think we had one day where we had a rain delay,” he said. “Beyond that, it was pretty much every day you could go to work as you please.”
Tracy ZeaIn the face of the fall drought conditions, Mississippi River water levels dropped for the third year in a row, hindering grain transport in the midst of the harvest. Mississippi River grain traffic tends to be the busiest in October, November and the first half of December, said Tracy Zea, president and CEO of the Waterways Council, a group representing barge companies.
Water levels at St. Louis were more than two and a half feet below the datum (a base level established when readings first began), while levels at Memphis, Tenn., that day were nearly six and a half feet below the datum. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sets the low threshold at Memphis at five feet below the datum.
With the low water levels came weight restrictions limiting how much grain could be loaded onto barges and shipped down the river. Jim Tarmann, the managing director for the Illinois Corn Growers Association, told Agri-Pulse the normal 42-barge-tow limit was reduced to roughly 30 tows in the midst of the water level challenges.
Not only were fewer tows being pushed down the river, but they were also forced to carry less grain. Mike Steenhoek, the executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition, said for each foot of draft reduction on the river, individual barges could be loaded with 7,000 fewer bushels of soybeans. He said some parts of the river saw several feet of draft reductions.
Amid the restrictions, freight rates went up, forcing farmers to bear additional costs for transporting their crops, Tarmann said, all while commodity prices are down and input costs remain high.
“It’s kind of like a triple whammy,” Tarmann said, adding that this is the third year in a row where farmers have seen these added costs due to low Mississippi River water levels.
Water levels have risen in some parts of the river amid recent rains, however. As of Tuesday, water levels at St. Louis increased to 9.47 feet above the datum. While water levels at Memphis were more than 10 feet below the datum — still in the low threshold — they are forecasted to rise to 4.40 feet above the datum by November 12.
Still, more rains are likely to be needed to sustain Mississippi River water levels throughout the next few months, said Rippey, the USDA meteorologist. When he spoke to Agri-Pulse Monday, he said on top of the two storms that traveled across the U.S. in the past few days, there’s one more in the pipeline for this week.
“If this were to be the last of the three,” he said of the final storm, “then we could see low water issues returning by the end of the month.” But if more storms were to arrive later in November or in December, “we’re probably not going to be talking about river level problems anymore," he said.
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