All eyes are on Montana as Republicans try to seize control of the Senate from Democrats in next week’s election, though the scales also could be tipped by a handful of other competitive races.
Three-term Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, an organic grain farmer and former music teacher, faces his toughest reelection challenge yet in his race with former Navy SEAL and Bridger Aerospace CEO Tim Sheehy in the Republican-leaning state.
A Sheehy win could be enough to guarantee Republican control of the Senate, assuming GOP senators win all their re-election bids. West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin's retirement in his deep red state is expected to bring the chamber to a 50-50 split. One more seat would ensure GOP control of the Senate, even if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the White House.
Two Republican senators are in tighter-than-expected races, Ted Cruz in Texas and Deb Fischer in Nebraska. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates both as leaning Republican.
Montana's high-profile Senate race has brought a flood of money into the state. Tester’s campaign has so far raised $88.1 million, while Sheehy has raised $25.8 million. So far, Tester has spent $84.4 million, while Sheehy has spent $21.9 million.
FiveThirtyEight's latest polling average, from Tuesday, has Sheehy up 5.3 percentage points.
Tester, who currently sits on the Senate agricultural appropriations subcommittee, which controls spending for USDA and FDA, has focused on competition issues during his term in Congress.
Montana Farmers Union President Walter Schweitzer told Agri-Pulse Tester supports the idea of a “competition title” in the farm bill. Tester also has been a proponent for strengthening protection for producers under the Packers and Stockyards Act. He has also waded into the ‘right to repair’ debate, introducing legislation to require farm equipment makers to provide producers with “any documentation, part, software or tool required to diagnose, maintain or repair their equipment.”
Tim SheehyHe's bucked his party at times, too. Tester’s campaign website touts his decision to vote for a Congressional Review Act resolution to overturn the Biden Administration’s Waters of the United States rule and his efforts to overturn a USDA decision to allow beef imports from Paraguay.
Tester is a Montana Farmers Union member, and while the organization does not endorse candidates, Schweitzer told Agri-Pulse he would “be ecstatic if [Tester] wins reelection and concerned if he loses.”
Gordon Stoner, a Montana Democrat and former president of the National Association of Wheat Growers, also expressed support for Tester.
“I can’t say that we agree on every issue, but by and large, he sees the world as I do and he understands the impact that ag policy has out on the ground,” Stoner told Agri-Pulse.
Tester has endorsements from the National Federation of Federal Employees, the National Wildlife Federation Action Fund and Montana Rural Voters.
Sheehy’s campaign website says he believes in “fair prices” for farmers and a “secure” U.S. food supply. He was endorsed in September by the Montana Stockgrowers Association.
“In our conversations with him, he’s a firm believer that agriculture and food security is a national security issue and the future of the livestock industry … is paramount for our country,” Stockgrowers Association Executive Vice President Raylee Honeycutt told Agri-Pulse.
Cut through the clutter! We deliver the news you need to stay informed about farm, food and rural issues. Sign up for a FREE month of Agri-Pulse here.
Montana potato farmer Susan Lake, a Republican, said Sheehy’s ownership of Little Belt Cattle Company, a 20,000-acre Black Angus and Wagyu cattle ranch, means he “has skin in the game” on agriculture.
“I like the fight in him,” she said. “I like the energy he brings to the table. I like the fact that we are getting somebody that is really a new generation of congressman.”
In Ohio, Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown, a member of the Senate Ag Committee, is taking on Republican auto dealer Bernie Moreno. The Cook Political Report has scored the race a tossup and FiveThirtyEight’s current polling average shows Brown up by 1.5 percentage points.
In Pennsylvania, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is in a tight race with Republican hedge fund CEO David McCormick. FiveThirtyEight’s average has Casey ahead by just over 3 percentage points.
In Michigan, Democratic House Ag Committee member Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers are vying for Michigan’s open Senate seat, which is currently held by Democrat and Senate Ag Committee Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow.
Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis. (Al Drago/Pool via AP, file) Slotkin is a former Central Intelligence Agency analyst, Rogers a former law enforcement officer. Polls show Slotkin ahead by 4 percentage points, according to the FiveThirtyEight average.
Wisconsin Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is in a tight race with Republican real estate developer and bank CEO Eric Hovde. Baldwin is currently leading in polls by 3 percentage points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s average.
Agriculture has played a fairly significant role in the Wisconsin race. Hovde’s platform calls for reducing regulations like WOTUS for producers, banning Chinese land purchases and delisting the gray wolf from the endangered species list. Baldwin, meanwhile, is calling for reducing Canada's milk product trade barriers, Federal Trade Commission action for more competition in the paper products industry and banning the label “milk” on plant-based beverage containers.
Baldwin has been endorsed by the Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation, which she said during a recent debate made her the first Democrat the organization has endorsed in nearly 20 years.
In Nebraska, Fischer has been struggling against mechanic and former union president Dan Osborn, who is running as an independent.
Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb. Fischer, a Senate Ag Committee member, has supported cattle market transparency legislation and the selling of year-round E15. Osborn’s platform calls for federal “right to repair” legislation for farm equipment, refocusing crop insurance subsidies to smaller farms and specialty crop producers and providing support to smaller meatpackers.FiveThirtyEight’s current polling average shows Fischer with a 1 percentage point lead.
So far, Osborn appears to have outraised and outspent Fischer, according to Federal Election Commission data. He has raised $7.9 million, spending $6.7 million of that. Fischer, meanwhile, has raised $5.8 million, but began with $1.4 million of cash on hand. She has spent $6.6 million.
In Texas, Cruz is leading Democratic Rep. Colin Allred by 3.5 percentage points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
For more news, go to www.agri-pulse.com.
