Ethanol, trade and America's relationship with China are a few of the topics Republican presidential candidates have been talking with Iowans about as they barnstorm the state in preparation for the Jan. 15 caucuses.
Iowa's first-in-the-nation slot for Republican presidential candidates typically leads to a significant level of attention for agricultural policy issues, but some observers say they have noticed a decline in agriculture-focused discourse from contenders compared with previous election cycles.
Polls show President Donald Trump remains the clear frontrunner, with support from 50% of likely Iowa GOP voters, according to a FiveThrityEight analysis of recent polls. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley are following at 18.4% and 15.7%, respectively.
“If Trump performs as well as the polls in Iowa would indicate, it would seem to me that this nomination is over Jan. 15,” said Storm Lake Times editor Art Cullen.
Biofuels have been one major talking point. Each of the five major candidates have called for year-round E-15 sales and opposed the idea of electric vehicle mandates, according to Biofuels Vision, a coalition of groups including the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association, the Iowa Corn Growers Association and the Iowa Soybean Association.
Both DeSantis and Haley also support other concepts on the coalition's matrix, including expanding biofuel use, preserving biofuel tax credits, implementing the Renewable Fuel Standard in an industry-supported manner, adopting the GREET model as the standard for biofuel tax credits, allowing for the utilization of higher ethanol blends and supporting the farm bill’s energy title.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (AP Photo/Phil Sears)“It shows that they have gotten out around Iowa,” Iowa RFA executive director Monte Shaw told Agri-Pulse of the two candidates checking all of the boxes. “It shows they've talked to people, not just in the big cities, but in the towns, and that they've listened and, quite frankly, that they've learned.”
Two other GOP candidates, Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, have also committed to expanding biofuel use and supporting the farm bill’s energy title, though Ramaswamy does oppose preserving biofuel tax credits.
“What's been interesting is the number of folks (candidates) ... who have I think maybe had their ideas about things like biofuels changed,” Iowa Rep. Zach Nunn, R-Iowa, told Agri-Pulse, noting that campaigning in Iowa appears to have had some impacts on positions held by candidates like Ramaswamy.
Trump has expressed support for expanding biofuels, but has not yet made it clear where he stands on several of the other issues on the matrix. Shaw said Trump tends to do more “rally-style events” and fewer Q&As than the other candidates, which makes it more difficult to understand some of his stances on biofuel policies.
Trump, in a campaign video shared by Forbes Breaking News on YouTube, has also pledged to cut taxes for farmers, increase ethanol production and exports, and create a task force aimed at reducing prices for fertilizer and other farm inputs. During one farm visit last October, he signed an Oskaloosa farmer’s John Deere tractor, according to the Des Moines Register.
Trump has also defended his previous use of tariffs on China and has not backed away from using the practice if elected. Last summer, he suggested the creation of a “Trump Reciprocal Trade Act,” which would impose tariffs on any country that places tariffs on U.S. goods. The tariffs would be of an equal amount.
“If India, China, or any other country hits us with a 100 or 200% tariff on American-made goods, we will hit them with the same exact tariff,” Trump said in a campaign video. “In other words, 100% is 100%. If they charge us, we charge them — an eye for an eye, a tariff for a tariff.”
On top of his biofuels commitments, DeSantis has also promised to give Iowa “first dibs” as a potential headquarters for the Agriculture Department. The Florida governor has been endorsed by Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, along with former Iowa Farm Bureau President Craig Hill.
Hill, who farms near Ackworth, told Agri-Pulse he was drawn to DeSantis due to the candidate’s support for year-round E-15, changes to how the Renewable Fuel Standard is operated and support for sustainable aviation fuel, though he said he has “no quarrels” with Nikki Haley as a candidate either.
He did, however, criticize Trump’s previous record on biofuels, saying that the former president’s EPA “did not make any significant changes in their reluctance to expand the RFS” or make much progress in allowing year-round E15 sales.
“Former President Trump has not made the overtures that he needs to be making on biofuels,” Hill said.
Hill said his views about the candidates were his own and didn't represent those of the Iowa Farm Bureau, where he was president from 2011-2021.
For her part, Haley penned a Des Moines Register op-ed aimed at garnering farmer support where she decried the current administration’s Waters of the U.S. rule, promised to eliminate federal gas and diesel taxes, and said she would do “everything in [her] power to force China to sell every inch of land that it owns.”
Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)Ramaswamy, whose support in Iowa is estimated by FiveThirtyEight at 6%, last month dived into statewide debates over pipelines meant to help ethanol plants collect and store carbon in the ground. The businessman urged the Iowa Utility Board not to approve eminent domain for Summit Carbon Solution’s 2,000-mile pipeline project, a large chunk of which crosses through the state.
Summit’s project has already faced permitting challenges in North Dakota and South Dakota.
If the Iowa Utility Board were to approve permits for the project, Ramaswamy said the decision should be followed by an “immediate appeal to the Iowa Supreme Court.” He promised at a Dec. 2 event hosted by the anti-pipeline Free Soil Coalition that he would not disperse subsidies to parties utilizing eminent domain if he were elected president.
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“This is within the power of the U.S. president to fix,” Ramaswamy said at the event.
Former Iowa Secretary of Agriculture and Trump administration USDA Undersecretary Bill Northey told Agri-Pulse that he’s noticed less of a focus on “strictly ag issues” during this campaign than in past cycles. The candidates, he said, are focusing on more generalized “pro-business” messages that can catch the eye of farmers, but tend to avoid discussing specific agricultural issues in front of ag audiences.
“They’re certainly encouraging less regulation, that’s good for conservative candidates generally but also appeals to ag concerns about the EPA and things that are going on there,” Northey, now the head of the Agribusiness Association of Iowa, said.
Outside of biofuels, Cullen also said he hasn’t noticed a ton of discussion from the candidates about other agricultural issues like the farm bill, crop insurance or consolidation, though China’s relationship with the U.S. has drawn attention from candidates. Several, he said, have discussed the idea of prohibiting Chinese purchases of farmland, despite Iowa already having a state law prohibiting foreign investors from acquiring agricultural land.
The U.S. exported a record $36.4 billion in agricultural exports to China last year, according to a new analysis from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, which has made some Iowa farmers concerned about some of the candidates’ sometimes “aggressive” China-focused rhetoric, Northey said.
“I’ve heard some nervousness amongst some ag folks around China trade issues,” Northey told Agri-Pulse. “They’re no more pro-Chinese than the other voters out there — they’re nervous about what China’s doing, whether they’ve been shooting straight with us and other kinds of things. But they also realize that we sell a lot of products to China and we’re especially vulnerable to a disruption in that market.”
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