Very bullish USDA Crop Production report lowers corn, soybean forecasts

By Agri-Pulse Staff

© Copyright Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.

Washington, Oct. 8 – Delivering very bullish market moving downgrades, the USDA Crop Production report released Friday morning forecasts U.S. corn production down 4% from USDA's September forecast, with soybean production down 2% from September's figure. Despite the soybean downgrade, this latest soybean production forecast is for a record high 3.41 billion bushels, down 2% from September but up 1% from last year.

The report puts expected corn production at 12.7 billion bushels, down 4% from USDA's September forecast and down 3.4 percent from last year's record production of 13.1 billion bushels. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 155.8 bushels per acre, down 6.7 bushels from the previous month and 8.9 bushels below last year's record of 164.7 bushels.

Forecasted corn yields decreased from last month throughout much of the Corn Belt and Tennessee Valley. Illinois showed the largest decline, down 14 bushels per acre. Indiana and Iowa are both down 10 bushels from the previous month, while Missouri and Nebraska declined 9 bushels per acre. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 81.3 million acres, up less than 1 percent from the September forecast. Acreage updates were made in several states based on administrative data.

Soybean production is forecast at a record high 3.41 billion bushels, down 2% from September but 1% above last year. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average a record high 44.4 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushel from last month but up 0.4 bushel from last year.

Compared with last month, yields are forecast lower or unchanged in all major-producing States except Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, New York, and Wisconsin. The largest decreases in yield from last month are expected in North Carolina and Virginia, down 5 and 4 bushels, respectively. If realized, the forecasted yields in Illinois, Louisiana, Nebraska, New York, North Dakota, and Wisconsin will be record highs and the forecasted yield in Minnesota will tie the previous record high. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at 76.8 million acres, down 1% from the previous estimate but up 1% from 2009. Acreage updates were made in several states based on administrative data.

All cotton production is forecast at 18.9 million 480-pound bales, up slightly from last month and up 55 percent from last year's 12.2 million bales. Yield is expected to average 841 pounds per harvested acre, up 64 pounds from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 18.4 million 480-pound bales, up fractionally from last month and 56 percent above 2009. Producers in Texas and the Delta region are expecting increased yields from last month while producers in the Southeastern region are expecting reduced yields. American Pima production, forecast at 497,800 bales, was carried forward from last month.