WASHINGTON, Feb. 8, 2013 – The season-average farm prices for wheat and corn are reduced, but soybean prices are increased, in this month’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released by USDA’s Economic Research Service.
Summarized information on prices, production, and exports from the report is below:
Wheat: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 25 million bushels lower this month with higher expected feed and residual disappearance. Feed and residual use is projected 25 million bushels higher as weaker cash prices relative to corn support opportunities for increased wheat use in livestock and poultry rations.
Feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels each for Hard Red Winter (HRW) and Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat, and raised five million bushels for White wheat.
Projected all-wheat exports are unchanged, but HRW and Hard Red Spring wheat are lowered 25 million bushels and 5 million bushels, respectively.
Offsetting these reductions are projected increases in SRW and White wheat exports of 25 million bushels and 5 million bushels, respectively.
The projected season- average farm price for wheat is narrowed 5 cents on both ends of the range to $7.70 to $8.10 per bushel.
Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are nearly unchanged with a small increase in beginning stocks more than offsetting a small decrease in production. Global wheat output is projected 0.7 million tons lower. Production is lowered for Kazakhstan and Brazil, but raised for Ukraine, South Africa, and Belarus.
Corn: The projected range for the season-average farm price for corn is lowered 20 cents at the midpoint and narrowed to $6.75 to $7.65 per bushel. Corn exports are projected 50 million bushels lower based on the sluggish pace of sales and shipments to date and prospects for more competition from Brazil. Corn use for ethanol production is unchanged, but corn use for sweeteners and starch is raised 20 million bushels, boosting projected food, seed, and industrial use. Projected corn ending stocks are raised 30 million bushels.
“Reported monthly prices received by farmers to date continue to reflect forward sales made at prices below prevailing cash market bids,” the report said.
Global corn production for 2012/13 is raised 2.1 million tons with increases for Brazil, Mexico, India, and Ukraine more than offsetting a reduction for Argentina. Brazil production is raised 1.5 million tons based on higher reported area and yields for the first-season crop and good early prospects for second-season corn. Mexico production is increased 0.8 million tons with higher reported area for the summer crop. Production is raised 0.6 million tons for India on higher area as indicated by the latest sowing progress reports. Ukraine production is increased 0.4 million tons on higher reported yields. Argentina production is lowered 1.0 million tons as persistent dryness in January and early February lowers yield prospects, particularly for late-planted corn.
Oilseeds: The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2012/13 is projected at $13.55 to $15.05 per bushel, up 5 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $430 to $460 per short ton, unchanged from last month. The soybean oil price projection is also unchanged at 49 to 53 cents per pound.
U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 125 million bushels, down 10 million from last month due to increased crush. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1.615 billion reflecting both larger soybean meal exports and domestic use.
Strong U.S. soybean meal exports during the first half of the marketing year are partly offsetting declining shipments from Argentina where crushing has slowed due to limited soybean supplies. Domestic soybean meal use is raised in line with projected gains in meat production. Soybean oil production is raised on higher soybean crush and a higher soybean oil extraction rate. Soybean oil exports are projected at 2.3 billion pounds, up 150 million from last month as sales continue stronger than expected.
Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 466.9 million tons, up 1.1 million from last month. Global soybean production is raised fractionally to 269.5 million tons as improved production prospects in Brazil offset deteriorating conditions in Argentina. Soybean production for Brazil is projected at a record 83.5 million tons, up 1 million from last month due to higher yields resulting from improved moisture in the center-west.
Rice: Slight revisions are made to the U.S. all rice and rice-by-class supply and use balance sheets. U.S. 2012/13 total rice supplies are raised slightly because of an increase in imports. Beginning stocks and production are unchanged from a month ago. Long-grain imports are raised 0.5 million cwt. to a record 18.5 million, and combined medium- and short-grain imports are unchanged at 2.5 million.
Sugar: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2012/13 is increased 65,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, due to higher sugar production more than offsetting lower imports. Louisiana cane sugar and U.S. beet sugar production estimates are increased in line with reports from processors, and increased shortfall in filling the tariff rate quota accounts for reduced imports. Sugar use is unchanged.
Livestock, Poultry, Dairy: The 2013 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month reflecting higher forecast beef, pork, broiler, and turkey production. Beef production is raised based mostly on heavier carcass weights. The beef production forecast is also raised as cow slaughter in the first quarter is expected to be relatively high. Pork production is raised as carcass weights are expected to reflect more moderate feed costs.
The beef export forecast for 2013 is unchanged as trade restrictions by Russia are offset by gains to Japan and other markets. Pork exports are lowered on trade restrictions imposed by Russia although there is expected to be some offset in higher exports to other markets. Poultry is raised based on larger-than-expected November shipments.
Cattle, hog, and turkey prices for 2013 are unchanged from last month. Broiler and egg prices are raised on expected demand strength in 2013.
The milk production forecast for 2013 is raised. Milk cow numbers are raised as USDA’s Cattle report indicated that the number of cows on Jan. 1 was about unchanged from 2012. Milk production estimates for 2012 are raised, reflecting end-of-year production data. Dairy trade estimates for 2012 reflect the pace of trade through November. Cheese prices are unchanged from last month, but the price range is narrowed.
Cotton: The 2012/13 U.S. cotton forecasts include higher exports and lower ending stocks relative to last month. Estimates of production and domestic mill use are unchanged. Exports are raised slightly to 12.5 million bales, due mainly to an increase in projected imports by China. Ending stocks are forecast at 4.5 million bales, accounting for 28 percent of total disappearance. The forecast range for the marketing year average price received by producers of 69-73 cents per pound is raised 3 cents on the lower end and 2 cents on the upper end of the range, reflecting a sharp increase in the price received for December.
The aggregate world 2012/13 production, consumption, and stocks forecasts show only slight revisions this month, but increases in China’s production and imports are raising the expected concentration of stocks there.
For the full WASDE report visit: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
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