Hundreds of export licenses for meat facilities that ship products to China are set to expire in the coming days, fueling doubts about future access to a major export market.
More than 50 poultry, 400 pork and 400 beef export facilities’ licenses will expire Sunday. The facilities were all approved for five-year export licenses by China’s customs body shortly after the signing of the U.S.-China phase one agreement in 2020.
Some 652 U.S. beef facilities had Chinese export licenses as of this week as well as 589 pork and 601 poultry facilities.
Dozens of licenses for poultry export facilities also expired last month, along with those at a handful of beef and pork and seven dairy facilities. Agri-Pulse reported at the time that the Agriculture Department had been trying to work with Beijing to renew the licenses, but to no avail.
Accordingly, more than a third of all registered poultry export facilities will have seen their licenses expire, Greg Tyler, president and CEO of the USA Poultry and Egg Export Council told Agri-Pulse. More than 70% of U.S. beef and pork facilities exporting to the country will also be without licenses, according to a list maintained by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China.
USDA reported that the facilities that expired last month have still been able to export to the country and have not seen their products blocked. Joe Schuele, vice president of communications at the U.S. Meat Export Federation, also told Agri-Pulse that he was not aware of any blocked shipments, but that the industry is worried about what it might mean for future U.S. meat exports.
“We really need clarity on whether that is going to continue,” Schuele said.
Last month, FAS said it had spoken with other countries that had experienced similar issues with expiring Chinese export licenses and found that China had continued to accept products while they worked with countries to renew licenses.
“Exporters have to make decisions weeks in advance about shipping to China,” Schuele said. “Therefore, we need more reassurance other than just lack of rejections.”
Gina Tumbarello, a partner at DTB AgriTrade, a firm that advises producers and exporters, said the lapse in licenses would only add to the environment of uncertainty that U.S. exporters are currently facing in international markets.
"They're letting the product in now, but maybe they're not tomorrow," Tumbarello told Agri-Pulse. "All it takes is for the authorities to say, ‘I looked at the list, and you're not active, and we are not letting your product in.’”
Among the companies set to be affected by the expiring licenses are meat-producing giants like Cargill, Tysons Foods and Smithfield. Smithfield directed Agri-Pulse to USMEF’s position on the matter, while Tysons and Cargill did not respond to requests for comment.
Neither USDA nor the Foreign Agricultural Services’ China post responded to multiple requests for comment from Agri-Pulse on what efforts were underway to engage with Beijing on the issue.
The Chinese embassy in Washington did not respond to a question on whether the licenses would be renewed.
As part of the phase one deal, China committed to expanding market access for U.S. meat and added a slew of facilities to the approved export list.
Under that arrangement, China was expected to increase its agricultural exports by around $80 billion. While China fell short of its overall agriculture purchasing commitments, pork imports were a rare bright spot under the deal. An outbreak of swine fever depressed domestic inventories, causing a significant uptick in pork imports. The U.S. ended up exporting more than 300% of its phase one target to the country, according to analysis from the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Some in the Trump administration, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, have suggested that the U.S. should enforce China’s purchasing commitments under the deal to bolster U.S. agriculture exports to the country.
But they may find Beijing less willing to take more meat today. The Chinese industry is in a different economic climate. Its hog inventory has bounced back from the swine fever outbreak, according to FAS analysis, and while the country is set to increase its beef imports marginally in 2025, it has also opened a safeguard investigation to protect domestic beef producers from imports.
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