With spring fast approaching and U.S. crop acreages up, U.S. buyers will likely bear the brunt of the costs of any new tariffs on fertilizers, at least in the short run, analysts tell Agri-Pulse, as some manufacturers are already eying price hikes.

President Donald Trump has suggested new 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico could start as soon as Saturday. The U.S. imports more than 90% of its annual potash fertilizer demand, mostly from Canada, according to the Energy Department, leaving farmers particularly sensitive to any new costs.

Trump’s pick for commerce secretary told lawmakers this week that the tariffs are designed to spur the U.S.’ neighbors into taking firmer measures to stem the flow of illegal migrants and drugs, and that both could still avoid tariffs on Saturday. But analysts say some potash fertilizer manufacturers aren’t waiting for the president to make his move to hike prices.

“We've had a couple manufacturers talk about a $25 a ton increase,” Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX, told Agri-Pulse. Higher grain prices, he said, as well as increased demand for potash is partly to blame.

“But I think a little bit of it too is trying to take advantage of all this uncertainty and worriedness about the tariffs that are coming,” Linville said.

The scope of any potential tariffs is unclear – as is whether Trump will actually go through with them.

Trump and administration officials reiterated this week that Saturday remains the preferred start date, but he has also shown that he is open to eleventh-hour negotiations to avert impending tariffs. On Sunday, a tariff standoff ended without new duties after the administration secured an eleventh-hour agreement with the Colombian government.

At least one Canadian potash producer doesn’t want to take the risk though, according to Doug Wright, a fertilizer consultant. Wright told Agri-Pulse that Nutrien – the world’s largest potash producer headquartered in Saskatchewan, Canada – was not taking U.S. potash orders in recent weeks that were due for delivery past Saturday for any volumes above what would already be in the country by then.

Shawn Churchill, Nutrien’s media relations lead, declined to comment on the claim, arguing that the company will not disclose “specific commercial discussions connected to our customers.”

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“We continue to plan with our customers for various tariff scenarios, including the impact tariffs would have on the cost of supplying Canadian fertilizer,” Churchill said in a separate statement on tariff preparations.

If Trump presses ahead with the Saturday tariffs, and potash fertilizer is covered, Linville said, U.S. importers could have little choice but to eat the higher costs.

“Potash application really happens in the month of March,” Linville said, leaving little time for U.S. importers to pivot to alternate suppliers. “The calendar isn't working with us.”

The corn planting season starts even earlier in the south.

“Corn planting is ready to start in the southern states – south Texas, the gulf states, so forth and so on. I mean, we need the fertilizer,” Wright said.

“The U.S. is forced to stay with Canada,” Linville concluded.

Further compounding supply challenges is that U.S. corn acreage this season could rise considerably. The Agriculture Department estimates that corn plantings will rise 1.3 million acres, and the actual acreage could be higher, Wright said.

“I'm expecting shortages of various fertilizers this year, Wright said, arguing most will stem from supply chain and logistical issues.  

Even if fertilizer isn’t covered in an initial tranche of tariffs, U.S. fertilizer importers could still face higher costs borne from Canada’s retaliation. Bloomberg reported in December that Canadian officials were considering export taxes on major commodities, including fertilizer, as part of a retaliatory package.

If tariffs and their retaliatory measures are still in place after the planting season though, U.S. importers could gradually pivot to alternate buyers to avoid tariffs on Canadian potash. Canadian producers could also opt to eat more of the tariff or export tax costs to keep their U.S. customers.

Global potash supplies are robust, Linville said in analysis this week, with “more than sufficient supplies.”

Global potash prices, for example, have not moved on Trump’s tariff threats, Linville told Agri-Pulse.

“This seems to be much more of a North American situation.”