President Donald Trump kicked off his second stint in the White House by following through on campaign promises targeting federal employees, green energy investments through the Inflation Reduction Act and illegal immigration.
But many of Trump’s efforts, in a flurry of executive orders he signed immediately after he was inaugurated Jan. 20, may be blunted by the Biden administration’s success in allocating the vast majority of IRA funding, or by legal challenges to his actions, experts say.
Trump quickly instituted a hiring freeze for federal agencies, and his Office of Personnel Management issued a memo directing federal agencies to evaluate all employees who are currently in “probationary periods” and determine whether they should be retained.
Those directions could force agencies such as USDA's Natural Resources Conservation Service, which has been trying for years to expand its workforce to better serve U.S. producers and help them access climate-smart assistance, to take a closer look at their recent hires.
NRCS did not respond to an inquiry about what it plans, but former NRCS Associate Chief Kevin Norton told Agri-Pulse he expects the service “will fully comply with the memo and the executive order” on hiring. “You will detail the number of positions that you have that are in probationary period, what the nature of those positions are and the rationale for keeping those individuals,” he said.
Norton added he think it’s “unlikely” that NRCS would find “a group of hires that could be dismissed without disrupting the agency,” since it not only has to meet staffing goals but also to fill vacancies.
Kevin Norton“So, the agency will fulfill the intent of the memo and move that up through USDA if the decision is to retain them, and then there'll be a decision about whether they have the adequate rationale to retain them,” he said. “It'll be a thoughtful process.”
The OPM memo directed agencies to provide information on probationary employees by Jan. 24.
Trump also said in an executive order that he was suspending disbursements under the IRA and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, which could spark opposition from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. Analyses show that at least 80% of IRA funding has gone to Republican districts.
In addition, says David Adeleye, a lawyer at Croke Fairchild Duarte & Beres who has been tracking IRA spending, about 80% of IRA funding is already in grantees’ accounts. The law authorized more than $300 billion in direct spending, tax credits and rebates. Private estimates of the law’s costs over 10 years are as high as $1.2 trillion, though some groups have come in with much higher estimates.
Once the money is received and in the process of being spent, the government has no real way to claw it back, other than through detection of fraud or mismanagement, Adeleye said.
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“Even if they pause funding today, that's about 20% of the funding, which is not a lot, because most of the bill was tax rebates,” Adeleye said.
Kate Sinding Daly, senior vice president for law and policy at the Conservation Law Foundation, also said holding unspent funds already authorized by Congress would require congressional action. “It’s illegal for an administration to refuse to spend funds Congress has appropriated,” Daly writes. “Under the Impoundment Control Act, a president can put spending on hold or ask Congress to rescind funds but can’t just hold money for ideological reasons.”
“He would need Congress to legislatively undo what they legislatively did,” she told Agri-Pulse.
That could be tough, both Daly and Adeleye say, because of the popularity of the law, even among some Republicans.
That point was made by Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., at the confirmation hearing last week for EPA administrator nominee Lee Zeldin. “I just want a presumption of innocence from you in terms of the decisions that were made,” Markey said, and added, “I just want to remind you that 80% of all of those grants have gone to Republican districts.”
Zeldin said he was keeping an open mind, but wanted to make sure that EPA has followed the law in distributing the money.
Adeleye said groups that have been told they will receive money but don’t have it yet could sue if they don’t get it.
“I do think if they do decide to pause any funding that's been announced by the Biden administration, it will invite litigation by some plaintiffs that think that they're entitled to those funds,” he said.
Kurt Kovarik, vice president of federal affairs for Clean Fuels, said the group is still trying to get a sense of the impact of Trump's executive orders on biofuel projects. The IRA allocated about $500 million for the Higher Blend Infrastructure Investment Program, and a significant amount — but not all — of that has already been obligated to awardees.
Kurt KovarikClean Fuels' understanding is that disbursement of those funds will be paused until the Trump administration can review all the programs and funds. He's hopeful that once that review is completed, the administration will recognize HBIP as a bipartisan effort providing significant benefits.
"Our perspective on this is that the president touted domestic energy dominance," Kovarik said. "We think homegrown biofuels are a key component of that."
Kovarik said small businesses have been obligated funds and are counting on them coming through.
The pause on regulations doesn't necessarily affect the notice of proposed guidelines on 45Z released by the Treasury Department this month since it did not need to be published in the Federal Register. A pause would affect further progress in finalizing the guidelines.
At this point, Clean Fuels is advising members to rely on the IRS 45Z notice and components released by USDA and DOE. While these are not final, they can be used as a framework.
The Trump administration, of course, could put out a separate notice superseding the framework.
Scott Irwin, an economist at the University of Illinois, was not optimistic about 45Z.
Pointing to language in the “Unleashing American Energy” executive order that calls a halt to disbursement of IRA funds, Irwin wrote on X, “Maybe ag and energy lobbies will be willing to fight for it in Congress, but any IRA tax credit now officially has a Scarlet Letter attached to it.”
Trump’s “Unleashing American Energy” order also says it is “the policy of the United States ... to eliminate the ‘electric vehicle mandate'.” The IRA includes a $7,500 tax credit to buy an EV.
Daly says rolling back EPA’s tailpipe emissions rule (which Trump cites as an EV mandate) “could be done regulatorily, but it would still require a rulemaking. So it's not like any of this stuff can just be done with the snap of a finger, and that's the way they would like it to be done. But as long as we still have the rule of law in this country, we've got procedures.”
Biden's EPA consistently defended its rule by saying it is not a mandate for making or buying EVs but is technology neutral. The final rule issued in 2023 added flexibility for manufacturers; EPA says car makers could meet the requirement by having 30% of their fleets as EVs by 2030.
Trump also made his first move to redirect water flows to users in the Central Valley and southern California. His “Putting People over Fish” order requires coordination between the National Marine Fisheries Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Bureau of Reclamation and other agencies to reapportion Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta flows to the Southern area.
His order cited delta smelt protections and the lawsuit that Gov. Gavin Newsom’s administration filed against the Trump administration for restricting flows from Northern California. He added that recent Los Angeles wildfires highlight the need for better water and vegetation management.
Trump has threatened to withhold disaster aid from California if Newsom doesn't direct more water to the south. His order requires the Interior and Commerce departments to report progress and implementation recommendations within the next 90 days.
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