University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources scientists found that large swings between severe wet and dry weather, a phenomenon known as hydroclimate whiplash, have increased from 31% to 66% since the mid 20th century.
Lead author and UCANR climate scientist Daniel Swain said California is a particularly challenging case due to its amount of flammable brush that has dried out “to exceptionally high levels” during drought periods.
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The researchers partially attribute the extended fire season to an unprecedented lack of rain In California. Swain said climate change is causing extreme winds to combine with dry conditions later than normal.
Whiplash will also double if global temperatures move three degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures – and the world is already almost halfway there. They also discussed how the atmosphere is now capable of releasing 7% more water per degree of warming.
Swain said that water management will be key to accommodating for water influx and dry periods. Co-author and UC Merced climate scientist John Abatzoglou referred to unprecedented 2023 snowpack for expanding efforts on floodwater management during future boom-and-bust water cycles.