Congressional Republicans and President-elect Donald Trump take power this month with bold pledges to slash regulations, extend expiring tax cuts and shrink the size of government, all of which could have a dramatic impact on food and agriculture.
The big question is how much they can get done and what they will prioritize. Republicans control both houses of Congress for the first time in six years and Trump returns to the White House Jan. 20.
Trump will have to depend on Congress to carry out much of his agenda, including tax and spending cuts, but the GOP control of the House rests on a historically narrow margin, creating considerable uncertainty about what Republicans ultimately accomplish.
Here’s a look at 10 major issues critical to the agriculture and food sectors that will be in play as Republicans take charge of the government:
Taxes: Congress faces deadline – and stiff price tag – to preserve the 2017 tax cuts
There is no other issue where more is at stake for farmers, small business and individual taxpayers than the expiration this year of many provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Republicans used the budget reconciliation process to pass that bill in 2017. Reconciliation bills need a simple majority to pass the Senate, not the 60 votes required for other legislation.
Senate GOP leaders fear that one massive bill could grind to a halt because of its sheer scope. But House Republican leaders argue that throwing everything into one bill would ensure the legislation is important to every GOP member.
Trump seems to be staying out of the process debate: "I like one big bill, but I can live either way,” he told reporters Tuesday.
Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)Notable: Another issue is whether Republicans offset some or all of the cost of tax cuts with cuts in spending or higher tariffs. Trump says tariff increases could pay for eliminating taxes on tips, a campaign promise he made. Republicans will almost certainly seek some savings from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, but that would provide only a fraction of what hardline conservatives in the House want to cut. Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., said Republicans must balance the budget; otherwise interest rates and inflation will not come down. He said there’s “unbelievable opportunity” to cut spending across many areas. House Ways and Means Committee member David Schweikert, R-Ariz., said the reconciliation bill needs enough offsets to not “spook the debt markets. “The mechanics is the math,” he continued. “Build the math, and then the process becomes obvious.” – Philip Brasher and Rebekah Alvey
Farm bill: Can Republicans find a way to pay for it?
Congress has another year to pass a new farm bill, thanks to the new extension of the 2018 farm bill enacted in December, the second such one-year extension.
It’s clear what Republicans would like in a new bill, given that the House Agriculture Committee advanced a bill last year, and the Senate Ag Committee’s new chairman, John Boozman, R-Ark., released a summary of what he wanted. Boozman and House Ag Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson, R-Pa., are largely in sync with their desire to increase Price Loss Coverage reference prices and remove climate guardrails on the remaining conservation funding that was authorized as part of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.
But it’s not clear how Boozman and Thompson can pay for changes in the bill’s commodity title. One way to do that is to move money into the title through the budget reconciliation process.
Thompson told Agri-Pulse he isn’t sure of the timing on the bill. But he said “we'll be able to hit the ground running. Earlier the better.”
Notable: Top Democrats on Senate and House Ag committees both come from Minnesota this year, giving Midwest ag interests new clout. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, ranking Democrat on the Senate panel, thinks the ongoing avian flu outbreak in the poultry and dairy sectors could justify Congress acting quickly on a new farm bill.
The incoming administration also will be tasked with distributing $31 billion in market relief and disaster aid passed by Congress in December. – Philip Brasher
Trade: When and how will Trump follow through on his tariff threats?
Whether and how Trump enacts his campaign promise to hike tariffs on U.S. imports is set to define both domestic and global trade environments in 2025. The self-proclaimed “tariff man” has at various times recently threatened new tariffs of up to 60% on goods from China, 25% from Mexico and Canada, and an across-the-board tariff applied to all U.S. imports. Partners like Mexico and the European Union have already suggested they would retaliate to any tariff hike. 
Everett Eissenstat
“We'll see how far he can go with tariffs without some type of legislative enactment,” Everett Eissenstat, a former Trump administration official, told Agri-Pulse. Emergency powers allow the president to levy tariffs for national security reasons; Trump has floated pursuing legislation to secure new authority to hike duties on any country that imposes a tariff rate higher than the U.S.
“Trump’s pretty serious about his reciprocal tariff act,” Eissenstat said. Trump also indicated this week that tariffs could feature in a reconciliation bill as a revenue raiser to offset new tax cuts.
The incoming president is also likely to seek new market openings, particularly in agriculture, Eissenstat said. But if the administration wants to resume negotiating sweeping trade agreements with tariff cuts, he could seek congressional input to fast-track a deal.
Notable: Lawmakers are aiming to reauthorize a slate of expired or expiring trade preference programs – including the Generalized System of Preferences, the Miscellaneous Tariff Bill and the African Growth and Opportunity Act. A growing contingent from both parties are also pushing to revoke normal trade relations with China. – Oliver Ward
MAHA: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his allies take control of food regulation
Trump’s embrace of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the “Make America Healthy Again” movement could shake up the food industry and agriculture. It remains to be seen if Kennedy will be confirmed to lead the Department of Health and Human Services, particularly given his attacks on pesticides, seed oils, processed foods and overall U.S. food and agriculture. But Republicans who have talked to him seem convinced he would be friendly to ag, despite his past record.
There are several outstanding policy decisions that could interest Kennedy, and where consumer and food groups see room for alliances. For one thing, the new administration is due to issue the 2025-2030 Dietary Guidelines for Americans.
Kennedy and others in the MAHA movement have been critical of the DGA process, specifically the advisory committee that recently produced recommendations based on a multi-year review.
Notable: The advisory panel didn't find enough evidence to craft recommendations on ultraprocessed foods, an issue the MAHA movement has been extremely vocal about. Some nutrition and consumer groups hope it's an area Kennedy could make progress. They also are optimistic he will stand up to the food industry on regulations like the “healthy” definition and labelin
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson) g regulations.
Last month, FDA released a long-awaited final rule updating the definition of “healthy” foods for the first time since 1994. However, industry groups noted the regulation has little bite without regulations on labeling.
Jim Jones, deputy commissioner of the Human Foods Program, said the agency is working to get its labeling proposal out before the end of the administration. Still, lack of a final rule leaves the door open for an incoming HHS headed by Kennedy to have an impact. – Rebekah Alvey
Environment: Climate regulations at stake as Trump, courts weigh Biden actions
The Trump administration must make decisions on litigation involving a raft of major environmental rules imposed by the Biden administration. Several lawsuits concern EPA's rule requiring existing coal plants and new natural gas plants to reduce 90% of their carbon dioxide emissions using carbon capture and sequestration.
The National Rural Electric Cooperatives Association in May challenged the rule in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, arguing it exceeds the agency’s statutory authority. Twenty-three state attorneys general separately filed a similar lawsuit. The plaintiffs petitioned for a stay of the rule amid ongoing litigation, but the Supreme Court denied the request.
The Trump Administration will also need to weigh whether to continue ongoing litigation over an Interior Department rule allowing conservation leases on Bureau of Land Management lands, which has drawn criticism from rancher and mining groups. A lawsuit filed by several groups, including the American Farm Bureau Federation and the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, is pending in federal court in Utah.
Notable: The roughly $14 billion in unspent IRA conservation funding could be targeted by the budget reconciliation process. Even if the funding isn't cut, Boozman and Thompson want to remove restrictions that limit the funding to climate-related practices. It also remains to be seen what the incoming administration will do with the Biden administration's $3 billion Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities initiative. Every state has multiple projects. – Noah Wicks
Avian influenza: Growing outbreak greets new administration
The new administration faces a persistent bird avian flu outbreak that has for the past two years moved through wild birds and into poultry flocks and, just last year, dairy cattle. As of Monday, the H5N1 virus was confirmed in 111 poultry flocks, impacting more than 10 million birds. Since the start of the outbreak in February 2022, more than 130 million birds have been affected.
AP Photo/Charlie NeibergallThe virus has infected 915 dairy herds since first being detected in cattle last March. Just one month ago, USDA issued an order requiring testing of unpasteurized milk for HPAI in 13 states. The program will eventually expand to include all states in the lower 48.
Notable: Vaccines may be on the way for cattle, depending on how quickly development and testing can occur. USDA has so far approved trials for seven possible bovine vaccines.
Sixty-three humans have so far contracted the virus, though most saw mild symptoms and were confirmed to be in close proximity to birds or dairy cattle, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. However, last month, the first severe case was reported and one person in Louisiana died. – Noah Wicks
Biotechnology: Back to the drawing board for USDA regulators
Plant breeders will have to go through a longer process to get their traits approved this year following a court decision in December that threw out a rule the first Trump administration issued in 2020, which was designed to speed up approval of plants developed through biotechnology.
The picture should become clearer Jan. 13 when the government and plaintiffs who challenged the rule must submit a joint statement addressing the impacts of the court ruling. In the meantime, USDA's Animal and Plant Health Service reverted to its pre-2020 regulatory regime.
“If you are unsure whether your organism developed using genetic engineering meets the definition of a ‘regulated article,’ you may submit an ‘Am I Regulated?’ inquiry,” the agency said.
Researchers told Science magazine they’re concerned that the judge’s ruling will slow the approval process. “This is a devastating decision,” Cathie Martin, a plant metabolic engineer at the John Innes Centre, told the magazine. – Steve Davies
Pesticides: Easing regs will challenge Trump administration
A new administration and Republican-controlled Congress are likely to be more friendly to the crop protection industry than the Biden administration, but given the rigid requirements of federal pesticide law and slim GOP majorities, it’s not clear that will translate into more tools for farmers.
Environmental groups are certain to be ke
Lee Zeldin, a former Republican congressman from New York, speaks before Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally at Ed Fry Arena in Indiana, Pa., Monday, Sept. 23, 2024. (AP Photo/Rebecca Droke) | APeping a close eye on whom the new administration nominates to head the Office of Chemical Safety and Pollution Prevention, which includes the Office of Pesticide Programs. EPA nominee Lee Zeldin does not have much of a history with agriculture, but he did vote for tough PFAS legislation when he served in the House. A key issue is the lack of funding to complete reviews in a timely manner, and there's no guarantee Trump will ask for enough.
OPP will have the task of re-evaluating registration applications of dicamba, which was vacated by a federal court in February. OPP has said it could take until this fall to complete its review process, which would make the herbicides unavailable for the coming growing season.
A wild card on the pesticide issue is Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has been especially critical of glyphosate, the active ingredient in Roundup. Also in the glyphosate space, Bayer says it is continuing to argue in state legislatures, Congress and the courts that state product liability laws that have formed the basis for legal judgments against Roundup should be superseded by the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act. – Steve Davies
Biofuels: New administration under gun to finalize 45Z guidance
Those across the biofuel industry are looking to see how the incoming Trump administration and 119th Congress handle tax credits like the 45Z clean fuel production credit. The incentive was part of the Inflation Reduction Act and is intended to propel the biofuel and sustainable aviation fuel sectors. It technically kicked in on Jan. 1, but the Treasury Department has yet to release guidance explaining how the incentive will be administered.
Previously, Treasury said it anticipated “issuing guidance before the end of the administration.” Some in the industry are optimistic that the proposed guidance will come out before Jan. 20 and at least set broad parameters to give the industry more certainty.
Still, the Trump administration will be responsible for finalizing any guidance. It’s also likely that the incoming administration would institute a regulatory freeze on any proposals, including 45Z. This and getting agencies staffed and settled could further delay clarity for the industry, which has already warned that investments and production could be stalled.
In the meantime, some groups began pushing last year for Congress to extend the existing suite of biofuel incentives like 40A and 40B to give industry intermediate guidance.
It’s also unclear how efforts in Congress to extend provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act this year will affect 45Z or other biofuel incentives. Biofuel-friendly lawmakers claim there’s enough bipartisan support for these provisions that they will be preserved or updated.
Notable: Trump's EPA needs to set renewable volume obligations for 2026 and beyond. The Biden administration in 2023 set RVOs for 2023 through 2025. The industry blames that rule for depressing demand for biomass-based diesel. – Rebekah Alvey
Ag labor: Industry looks to Congress, courts for relief
Ag labor shortages will persist through 2025, along with legislative efforts to address an issue that involves one of the “third rails” of politics: immigration.
Michael Marsh
Despite failed attempts to approve a farm labor bill, National Council of Agricultural Employers Michael Marsh expects the Farm Workforce Modernization Act to be reintroduced. “It's going to be very challenging to get enough members on both sides to go in and support it,” he says. “But, you know, nothing ventured, nothing gained.” His group would like to see some changes to make it more “employer friendly.”
The bill, which would expand the H-2A program and provide a path to legal status for undocumented workers, has consistently gained wide support from the ag community, but not the American Farm Bureau Federation.
The Labor Department is litigating a bevy of cases challenging the H-2A program. Three different courts have issued injunctions preventing the department from enforcing certain provisions of an April H-2A worker protection rule, including language prohibiting employers from retaliating against workers for union organizing activities. The new administration will have to decide whether to keep defending Labor's regulations or go back to the drawing board.
Notable: Trump’s threat to deport millions of undocumented immigrants also is top of mind for those in agriculture who rely on immigrant labor. “I've had a lot of concern expressed from growers around the country with regard to deportation,” Marsh said. “And actually, I've had some reports – I haven't been able to validate them – but some of the workers are already abandoning their positions in agriculture to take something else." – Steve Davies
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