Several House districts that are represented by members of the House Agriculture Committee or that have significant agricultural production could be key to determining control of the chamber.
As of Tuesday, 11 districts currently held by Democrats and 14 represented by Republicans are considered toss-ups by the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Eleven of these seats are held by House Ag members or represent major farm districts.
Another 11 Democrat-held districts are competitive but are leaning in that party's direction, while 16 feature tight races but are generally expected to stay Democratic. Six competitive seats are expected to lean Republican while another 10 are classified as “likely Republican.”
Although ag districts may be key to either side winning the majority in the House, other national issues are at play in these races, including abortion, immigration and the cost of living. Candidates have focused less on specifics such as the farm bill and more on their personal backgrounds or the impact of the ag industry on local economies.
“We don’t hear about things like farm bill specifically, often in campaign ads just because the nuances of those are lost on most voters even in these rural districts,” said Erin Covey, U.S. House editor at the Cook Political Report. “So it's not something that is top of mind for them, and as a result, it's not something that campaigns are hyper-focused on either.”
Here are some of the top competitive ag races to follow:
Democrat Lanon Baccam (left) and Rep. Zach Nunn (right)Iowa 3rd District - Republican Toss Up
Freshman Republican Rep. Zach Nunn is facing off against Democrat Lanon Baccam, a combat veteran who later worked under Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack during the Obama and Biden administrations. Nunn narrowly won in 2022 by less than a percentage point.
Covey said Nunn’s win in the midterms was a “bright spot for Republicans” and gave the party full control over the Iowa congressional delegation.
With President Joe Biden initially on the ticket, Covey said Nunn had more of an advantage. However, now with Vice President Kamala Harris on the ticket, it’s less clear that Trump will carry the district, particularly as Harris makes gains with white, college-educated voters.
The dynamics in the presidential race could trickle down to the congressional race as well, Covey said. Nunn has raised about $5.2 million in the total cycle while Baccam has pulled in $4.8 million, which means Nunn does not have a major financial advantage, Covey said.
While agricultural issues have come up, other topics like abortion, immigration and cost of living have taken center stage, Covey said. This could be because rural parts of the district aren’t particularly competitive.
“It’s not super-surprising that they’re maybe less focused on ag issues because of that,” Covey said.
In an interview with Iowa’s News Now, Baccam blamed Nunn for the fact that the 2018 farm bill has expired twice. Baccam stressed the importance of passing a bipartisan package for Iowa farmers. He said it’s important to have a strong safety net within the farm bill, in part because of the threats from extreme weather events.
Baccam stressed the importance of nutrition assistance in the bill.
“That allows us to bring folks from both sides of the aisle together in order to get the farm bill done,” Baccam said. “I will support both.”
During the campaign, Nunn has highlighted his work on the House Ag Committee, particularly on rural infrastructure and broadband. Nunn was also active in pushing leadership to move on a farm bill before breaking in September to campaign.
Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (left) and Democrat Christina Bohannan (right) Iowa 1st District - Republican Toss Up
Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is locked in a rematch against Democrat Christina Bohannan, who briefly served in the state House of Representatives.
Unlike the 3rd District, which includes metropolitan Des Moines and leans more Democratic, the 1st trends slightly more rural and Republican. Trump won the 3rd by only one point in 2020 while wining the 1st by four.
Miller-Meeks has struggled to win the district in the past due to weaknesses with her base and independent voters, Covey said. She ran for the district several times before winning by six votes in 2020, but went on to beat Bohannan in 2022 by nearly 7 percentage points.
In this cycle, her opponent has taken advantage of those weaknesses and outraised Miller-Meeks by about $10 million, Covey said.
Similar to the 3rd district race, TV ads and campaign issues have focused on more national issues. Republicans had tried to go after Bohannan’s positions on immigration and crime, Covey said.
On her campaign page, Bohannan suggests she would take on “Big Ag,” support family farms and ensure farmers get the right resources to be “part of the solution for a sustainable future.”
Cut through the clutter! We deliver the news you need to stay informed about farm, food and rural issues. Sign up for a FREE month of Agri-Pulse here.
Miller-Meeks became chair of the Conservative Climate Caucus in April, and has touted both her leadership on this issue and Iowa’s role in the renewable energy and biofuel sector.
Rep. Derrick Van Orden (left) and Democrat Rebecca Cooke (right)Wisconsin 3rd District – Lean Republican
Freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden is running against Democrat and small business owner Rebecca Cooke and is the target of a lot of Democratic spending, Covey said. Van Orden has received backlash for being at the Capitol during the Jan. 6, 2021 riot, and other incidents.
Both candidates have highlighted their backgrounds on local dairy farms and have touched on other agricultural issues along the campaign trail. ‘
Van Orden, a member of House Ag, has touted his work on the farm bill, which he voted to advance out of committee in May. Specifically, he’s celebrated provisions that he says would provide better compensation for dairy farmers and provide whole milk products to school children.
Cooke says on her website she would restructure the farm bill “with a greater focus on agriculture and the farming community itself versus the bulky package it has become.”
Rep. Don Davis (left) and Republican Laurie Buckhout (right) North Carolina 1st District – Democrat Toss Up
In perhaps the most competitive race for House Ag Democrats, freshman Rep. Don Davis is facing off against Laurie Buckhout, a retired Army Colonel who edged out other primary candidates with the help from the Congressional Leadership Fund, backed by Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and other Republican leaders.
Biden won this rural district by about two points in 2020, but new congressional maps will make it more challenging for Democrats to maintain an edge. The demographics are also trending more white and rural while the Black population has shrunk over time, Covey said.
However, Davis has a significant financial advantage that could allow him to outperform Harris in the district. The incumbent has raised nearly $5.6 million and has almost $1.8 million remaining, according to latest FEC filings. Buckhout has raised about $4.28 million with nearly $560,000 left to spend.
Covey said the race has focused less on agricultural policy, and instead Davis has highlighted his background in ag, the economic impact of the tobacco industry and overall cost-of-living challenges.
Davis was one of four Democrats who voted to advance the House farm bill out of committee back in May. Covey said this has not come up often in the campaign; other issues like national security and the economy have taken center stage.
Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (left) and Republican Joe Kent (right)Washington 3rd District – Democrat Toss Up
First-term Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, a House Ag member, is facing off against Republican Joe Kent, whom she narrowly defeated two years ago by 2,629 votes, flipping the district blue for the first time in 12 years.
While in Congress, Gluesenkamp Perez has maintained a moderate profile and occasionally broken with her party. Covey said this may give her an advantage, particularly against Kent, who is on the far right end of his party and has been tied to white nationalist figures and groups.
“She’s in a tough position again,” Covey said of Gluesenkamp Perez. “But again, Kent has some really unique vulnerabilities that sets him apart from almost any other Republican running in a competitive district.”
Agriculture policy has not come up much in this race, Covey said. However, Gluesenkamp Perez has made an effort to reach out to voters in the rural area of her district where the logging industry is key. She’s also tried to appeal to voters she thinks are turned off by politicians and discussed right-to-repair legislation, an issue for some farmers.
Federal and local law enforcement are investigating an arson incident at a ballot drop box in the district. It’s believed to have destroyed hundreds of ballots Monday, just over a week before this highly watched race. Both candidates have condemned the incident.
Colorado 8th District – Democrat Toss Up
Freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo is running to defend her seat from Republican Gabe Evans, a state House member and former police officer. Caraveo was elected in 2022 by just over 1,600 votes, while Biden won the district by 4 points in 2020.
The district includes suburbs and more rural, ag counties, Covey said. Oil and gas industries are key industries as well.
Caraveo was another Democrat to vote for advancing the House farm bill, but told CBS News she opposed parts of the legislation, including cuts to SNAP and reallocation of conservation funds. She said it is essential to work through partisan divides and pass a farm bill to give farmers, ranchers and producers some certainty.
Evans, who runs a farm with his wife, said in the CBS debate he would work to cut red tape and regulations for farmers if elected to Congress.
Democrat Adam Gray (left) and Rep. John Duarte (right)California 13th District – Republican Toss Up
Freshman Rep. John Duarte is locked in a tight rematch against Democrat Adam Gray, who worked in the State Assembly for a decade. The district ranks seventh for the most agricultural sales, according to 2022 census data.
Gray is up 2 points against Duarte, according to September polling from the California Elections & Policy Poll (CEPP) at CSU Long Beach and University of Southern California. In 2022, Duarte prevailed against Gray by just 564 votes.
Covey said Duarte is likely one of the top five most vulnerable Republicans in the House.
Local outlets reported that Gray skipped a Spanish language debate targeting Latino voters hosted by the Mendota Chamber of Commerce, quoting audience members who said they weren’t surprised by the no-show. Duarte carried on with the event by himself.
The candidates had a rematch in front of a live audience on Oct. 25 during a debate hosted by the Central Valley Journalism Collaborative, The Maddy Institute and UC Merced, where both defended their records as moderates of their respective parties.
Moderators focused on water infrastructure and supply. Duarte called out the Biden-Harris administration for allocating funds to the multibillion-dollar high speed rail project over improving valley needs for water. Gray asked “why are we derelict in our duty” to balance the budget and come to a consensus, calling for D.C. leaders that “don’t blame other people” and work across party lines.
Duarte, who hosted a congressional field hearing back in September on the state water supply, said the 2014 state water bond – which was championed by Gray during his tenure in the state assembly – has not actually resulted in any water reaching farms. Gray said it's up to Congress to make up the financial gap on major projects, adding that delays are due to intense partisanship that things aren’t getting done.
Gray also added an endorsement from former California Department of Food and Agriculture Secretary Bill Lyons to his website.
As of Oct. 16, Gray had raised over $5.3 million and spend nearly $4.6 million, while Duarte had raised nearly $4.1 million and spent over $3.1 million. Neither received funding from major agricultural associations, according to Open Secrets donation data.
Rep. David Valadao (left) and Democrat Rudy Salas (right)California 22nd District – Republican Toss Up
In another tight rematch, Rep. David Valadao is running to defend his seat from Democratic former state assemblyman Rudy Salas, whom he defeated in 2022 by about 3,000 votes. CEPP polling has shown Salas up by about 4 points, but noted that 16% of the district was still undecided and may lean Republican.
Valadao was recently endorsed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Kern County Farm Bureau during a joint press conference.
“David Valadao exemplifies the importance of protecting our agriculture future and understands firsthand the need for economic viability and sustainability for the generations to come,” said Jenny Holtermann, president of Kern County Farm Bureau.
Valadao also wrote an op-ed calling for disaster relief for farmers across the U.S. and particularly in California’s Central Valley, saying that years of extreme weather events and natural disasters have led to “significant loss.”
Salas has been working with local unions, and he spoke alongside Democratic Senate candidate Adam Schiff in Bakersfield last week.
Salas told ABC reporters he’s interested in investing more into energy projects such as carbon capture and sequestration, which he believes could help bolster “good-paying jobs” in the west side of the valley.
The 22nd District candidates debated earlier this month, addressing concerns over water infrastructure and border control.
Minnesota 2nd District – Lean Democrat
Democrat Rep. Angie Craig is running for her fourth term against Republican Joe Teirab, a former assistant federal prosecutor and Marine. While the district is a challenging swing-seat, Covey said Craig has a lot of experience running in competitive races and is one of the strongest Democrat incumbents in that regard.
Craig’s fundraising has outpaced Teirab. The Democrat and House Agriculture Committee member has raised over $7.6 million in comparison to Teirab’s nearly $2.4 million, according to latest FEC filings.
New York 19th District – Republican Toss Up
Freshman Rep. Marc Molinaro, who sits on the House Agriculture Committee, is vying for his second term in a tight rematch against Democrat Josh Riley. The incumbent prevailed against Riley in 2022 by less than 2 points.
Last month, POLITICO reported that this is one of the five districts New York Democrats hope to flip, and has been one of the most costly races in the country. Candidates, House campaign groups and super PACs had spent over $35.5 million for TV and digital ads as of Sept. 26.
Oregon 5th – Republican Toss Up
Freshman and House Agriculture Committee member Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer is facing off against Democratic state Rep. Janelle Bynum in another tight, consequential and costly race.
Chloe Lovejoy contributed to this story.
For more news, go to www.Agri-Pulse.com.
