The World Bank is forecasting that global prices of food commodities will drop another 4% next year after declining an estimated 9% in 2024.
The bank’s latest commodity markets outlook estimates the global price of corn will be down 1.1% in 2025 after falling 26% this year. Soybean prices are projected to drop 5.5% in 2025, while wheat prices are expected to drop by 1.9% next year.
Beef is expected to be a notable exception to the trend. Beef prices are expected to be up 16.3% this year and rise another 3.5% in 2025.
Prices of chicken, bananas and oranges are projected to soften in 2025, declining 1.4%, 3.8% and 22.7% respectively next year.
The report says the decline in commodity prices should eventually make food more affordable, especially in lower income countries that are considered to be emerging markets and developing economies, or EMDEs.
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“However, the relationship between global commodity prices and food insecurity is increasingly complicated by localized food crises related to conflicts, natural disasters, and idiosyncratic economic shocks,” the report cautions.
“As a result, with armed conflict remaining the predominant cause, the global incidence of undernourishment—a key measure of global hunger—has not fallen since 2017, affecting over 9 percent of the global population, or more than 730 million people, in 2023.”
