The farm economy is in much better shape than feared at the beginning of the year, according to USDA’s revised farm income forecast. USDA now estimates that net farm income will decline by 7% and remain above the 20-year historical average. Back in February, USDA had projected net farm income would plummet by nearly 26%.
But the rosier forecast masks tremendous variation between sectors. Unexpected gains in the livestock and poultry sectors are helping offset huge drops in sales across major row crops, including corn, soybeans, cotton and wheat.
USDA also says total production expenses will be down this year, driven by lower costs for feed, fertilizer and pesticides.
Farm income politics: Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack noted in a statement that the new forecast indicates farm income will have beaten the 20-year average for four straight years. Those four years happen to coincide with the Biden administration. “For the prior four years, net farm income was consistently at or below that historic average, even before the COVID-19 pandemic,” Vilsack said.
But the American Farm Bureau Federation notes in an analysis of the new forecast that net farm income would still be down 23% from the record set in 2022.
“USDA’s 2024 farm income forecast paints a grim picture for American agriculture. … While livestock producers may see modest gains, the outlook for many crop farmers is increasingly uncertain, with global supply and demand imbalances weighing heavily on prices,” the AFBF analysis says.
Trump touts Kennedy in New York City economic address
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who suspended his campaign two weeks ago and endorsed Donald Trump, is clearly having some degree of influence on the GOP presidential candidate, who addressed the Economic Club of New York Thursday about his “American First” economic plan, which relies heavily on tariffs.
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In the middle of a speech about how he plans to grow the economy, including the creation of a Sovereign Wealth Fund, the former president and GOP candidate said his administration would invest in “new and modern agricultural techniques” to produce “high-quality, healthy foods.”
Trump went on to praise Kennedy. “He is very much into helping people,” Trump said. “That was not easy for a Kennedy to be endorsing a Republican. That was not easy. but these are not Democrats,” he said, apparently pivoting to the opposing ticket of Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. “These are radical-left lunatics and you can’t let them run your country.”
Kennedy, who has a history of making controversial statements, including misleading or false scientific claims, has been sharply critical of federal agencies including USDA and FDA, saying they are captured by industry.
He also doesn’t like GMOs: In a post on X Thursday, Kennedy decried USDA’s recent approval of drought-tolerant genetically engineered wheat, which still must clear other hurdles before it can be commercialized in the U.S.
“Will we lose foreign markets and risk our health, yet again? Let’s make America healthy again. Increasing GMO foods is going in the wrong direction,” Kennedy said.
Biden hails rural investments in Wisconsin visit
President Joe Biden on Thursday visited Westby, Wisconsin, to tout $7.3 billion in newly announced funding for rural electric coops.
“You’re the backbone of our country. You deserve the same resources as folks in our cities and our suburbs,” Biden told rural Wisconsinites in a speech. He made references to other rural policies rolled out during his administration, like $42.45 billion in broadband infrastructure funding and fertilizer production investments.
Biden also used the swing-state event to stump for Harris and Walz. She “fought like hell for all of you,” he said. He said of Walz, “I think the guy’s going places."
FDA, Reagan-Udall Foundation to discuss feedback on traceability rule implementation
FDA will host a public meeting next month with the Reagan-Udall Foundation to recap stakeholder roundtable discussions of its traceability rule.
The traceability rule, a key element of the Food Safety Modernization Act, requires the supply chain to collect additional records to better assist FDA with identifying and removing potentially harmful foods. The compliance date for the rule is January 20, 2026.
To better understand some of the remaining challenges within the supply chain, FDA and the Foundation held three invitation-only roundtable meetings with stakeholders. The Foundation published a summary of some of the discussions but will expand on these themes during a public meeting Oct. 7. rural
“Together these activities will help to inform what additional steps the FDA can take to support implementation of this important regulation,” Jim Jones, FDA deputy commissioner for human foods, writes in an update announcing the meeting.
The foundation summary details residual confusion and lack of awareness about the rule, particularly among non-chain restaurants and smaller suppliers. Additionally, participants suggested FDA stagger the implementation schedule and expand pilots testing the rule.
FMI-The Food Industry Association, which represents major supermarket chains, says the report demonstrates the need for more time and flexibility to comply with the rule.
“We ask FDA to take this information into account to provide more time for compliance and work to participate in data retrieval pilot projects to ensure that implementation will provide meaningful value to FDA without unnecessarily driving up costs or negatively impacting product availability,” the group says.
Final word: “It’s going to be a dog fight, and the ag community is going to need to come prepared, smart and strategic.” — Invariant’s Anne MacMillan on expiring provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the battle ahead in Congress should Harris win the White House.
Learn more about the 2024 presidential and congressional campaigns in this week’s Agri-Pulse Newsmakers.
Correction: The original version of this incorrectly reported AFBF's estimate of the two-year drop in farm income. The correct figure is 23%.
