First-term GOP Rep. John Duarte is making it clear to his constituents what he believes is at stake in his run for re-election.
At a recent campaign appearance at his field office in Ceres, California, Duarte said he's "feeling pretty good" about his chances and stressed that "there's no path to victory for the Democrats to take the House without this seat. And so every expense, every tactic, every manipulation is on the table. So, our goal isn't to win by 0.4%. … Our goal is to win this by five or 6%, not three or 4%.”
California’s 13th District, where Duarte is running for re-election against Adam Gray, the Democrat he beat by just 564 votes in 2022, is one of a handful of major agricultural districts in the country that could help decide which party controls Congress in 2025.
Another race that is rated a toss-up by campaign analysts is the 22nd District, where GOP Rep. David Valadao is in a rematch with Democrat Rudy Salas, whom Valadao defeated by 887 votes in 2022.
The Central Valley stretches 20,000 square miles from Redding in the north down to Bakersfield. The 13th District, which ranks seventh in total agricultural production nationwide, according to the latest USDA census, includes Merced and parts of Madera, Stanislaus, Fresno and San Joaquin counties between Fresno and Sacramento. More than 42% of the voters are registered as Democrats, compared to fewer than 29% who are Republicans.
Valadao’s 22nd District, which ranks 13th in U.S. ag production, is at the southern end of the Central Valley, stretching north of Bakersfield and including Kings County and parts of Tulare and Kern counties. Voter registration favors Democrats 46% to 26%
President Joe Biden carried both districts in 2020.
Mark Baldassare, survey director for the Public Policy Institute of California, said the two House races will largely come down to voter turnout.
“What happens at the top of the ticket will matter a lot for districts, close districts like the ones we're talking about,” Baldassare said. “And how much enthusiasm there is for going out and voting for either former President Trump or Vice President Harris.”
At Duarte’s campaign event, constituents asked how Congress is working to address inflation, the cost of living and immigration. Campaign volunteers wore orange shirts that read “Let’s Send A Farmer To Congress” across the back.
Ticking off what he sees are key issues for voters in California’s Central Valley, Duarte told his constituents, “I'm not [in D.C.] to conduct partisan theater. I'm there to solve energy. Get water on the farms. Create jobs. Fight inflation. You know, promote abundance over scarcity. There is no morality in scarcity.”
The meet-and-greet was hosted by Ceres Mayor Javier Lopez, who also is up for reelection and shares the campaign office with Duarte. He opened the day by thanking Duarte for his continued support and work in the district.
“I want good, moral, honest people up in Washington that are willing to stand and fight,” one local woman told Duarte. “I watched the Republicans for many years now. They talk a lot and nothing gets done. Nobody's held accountable.”
Issues such as water access and quality, rural infrastructure, jobs and healthcare are among the Central Valley’s highest priorities.
The region’s reliance on pumping groundwater for both agricultural and general use has caused serious issues with subsistence and water quality, leading to regulations such as the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) of 2014.
Today, much of the valley is facing uncertainty with its water. More local groundwater sustainability agencies are not complying with SGMA and risk facing probationary status and further state oversight.
According to data from California State University, Fresno, the San Joaquin Valley accounts for about 10% of the state’s current population — and is expected to grow to 26% of the population, or 5.4 million people, by 2050.
Duarte challenger touts work on water issues
Gray is a Central Valley native who grew up in Merced and worked in his family’s dairy supply and feed store. For 10 years he was a state assemblymember for California District 21, representing Merced and Stanislaus counties.
As chair of the Joint Legislative Audit Committee, Gray requested that the state auditor review the Department of Water Resources and the State Water Resources Control Board. The audit was sparked by DWR’s water supply overestimation and use of outdated data prior to the 2021 drought, which led the agency to release an extra 700,000 acre-feet of water from the state’s reservoir. Gray also alleged that the board blocked local districts from distributing water to their customers.
The audit recommended the adoption of a “formal process for evaluating the quality of [DWR’s] forecasts” and noted that the agency is not adequately prepared to face the state’s water needs as climate change increases shortages.
Gray helped secure funding for the University of California, Merced — where he is on the faculty in the political science department — to build the Agricultural Science and Industrial Technology Complex. The $25 million project helps students seeking training for jobs in ag tech and related industries.
He also helped get the state to spend $200 million in 2021 to establish a joint medical school at UC Merced and University of California, San Francisco-Fresno. The Central Valley is historically short on doctors and other medical professionals.
“I think younger people want to see positive things happening in government [and] in the world and investments that they think are going to help them with better jobs, more innovation, climate change, et cetera,” Gray said in an interview with Agri-Pulse. “If you look at the agenda that John Duarte and his buddies have laid out in Washington, you show me what things they're doing that have anything to do with anything.”
Gray criticized Duarte for “rubber [stamping] everything the Republicans want" in Washington.
If elected, Gray wants to build a bipartisan coalition of House members and reprioritize federal funding for state water infrastructure, he said.
“We've got to have clean, safe drinking water across the valley and other parts of California,” Gray said. “And most of what you see in the water space is just people fighting with each other to try to take somebody else's water.”
Duarte owns Duarte Nursery Inc., which grows wine grapes, walnuts, almonds and pistachios. Prior to his election to the House, he participated in the California Agricultural Leadership Program and was on the boards of the California Association of Winegrape Growers and the Stanislaus County Farm Bureau.
In 2017 Duarte agreed to pay $1.1 million in settlements over violations of the Clean Water Act. The Department of Justice said he planted wheat on his property located in Tehama County, which contained protected wetlands, without obtaining a permit from the Army Corps of Engineers. In 2023 after Duarte made it to the House, the Supreme Court issued a landmark ruling narrowing the reach of the Clean Water Act.
On the farm bill, Duarte expressed frustration with the ongoing stalemate between House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn "GT" Thompson, R-Pa., and Senate Ag Chair Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich.
“I've got best of breed producers telling me that if … prices don't change on almonds, wine grapes, dairy, they're going out of business,” Duarte told Agri-Pulse. “The ag lenders are all very, very nervous, so we can't cut anymore out of the farm bill, out of the ag side of the farm bill right now.”
Duarte said it’s likely the 2018 farm bill will be extended again this year, but he expressed concern that might result in cuts to programs.
“If we win the Senate, the White House and keep the House, then of course, the next farm bill is gonna look very Republican,” Duarte said. “But in ag, we're worried that there might be so much austerity."
In 22nd District, Valadao sees water as top priority
The grandson of farm workers, Salas championed worker rights and helped pass AB 1066, the overtime pay rule for California farm workers. He had support from United Farm Workers, but ag groups and companies spent heavily to unseat Salas when he ran for assembly again in 2018.
“In 2016, I supported treating farmworkers like every other worker in California by ensuring they received the same treatment for overtime just like a kid working drive-through in an air-conditioned building,” Salas wrote in an email to Agri-Pulse. “In Congress I’ll continue to work with our industry experts to continue to find common-sense solutions that improve our agricultural community.”
Salas voted yes in 2014 on California’s $7.5 billion water bond in funding, with $2.7 billion allocated directly to water storage projects. He’s also historically supported the oil industry, authoring an assembly bill exempting small refiners from monitoring harmful emissions near their sites. The bill was withdrawn from consideration, but not before being met with backlash from environmental groups.
Valadao helps run his family’s two dairies and 1,000 acres of farmland growing almond, alfalfa, corn, wheat and dairy feed stock farm. He held leadership roles on the California Milk Advisory Board and the Western States Dairy Trade Association and served as the regional leadership council chair for Land O'Lakes Inc.
After one term in the state assembly, he was elected to Congress in 2012 and has served for eight years total. (He lost in 2018 to TJ Cox before regaining his seat in 2020.) He serves on the House Appropriations Committee, with a seat on the Agriculture subcommittee that writes the annual spending bills for the Agriculture Department and Food and Drug Administration.
Faith Mabry, a spokesperson for Valadao’s campaign, said water is the representative’s top priority. His first legislative action of the 118th Congress was to reintroduce the Working to Advance Tangible and Effective Reforms (WATER) for California Act, which the House passed as a part of the FY24 Energy and Water Appropriations Bill.
Late last month Valadao introduced the Avian Influenza Research and Response Act, as avian flu affects more and more dairy farms. He also co-wrote a letter to the Bureau of Reclamation on the Central Valley Project, urging them “to provide a substantial increase in water allocations.”
“I honestly think that the issues that our team and the representative focus on are the issues that matter to the Central Valley. So that's [the] cost of living, that's gas prices, food prices, energy prices and then obviously water is a big one for us as well,” Mabry said.
“Those are the issues that he focused on last cycle, focused on previous cycles and will continue to focus on because, ultimately, that's what is impacting folks in the district.”
