Significant shifts in agricultural commodity markets are expected in the next decade, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) say in their Agricultural Outlook, which projects India and Southeast Asia will account for 31% of global food consumption growth by 2033 and China’s demand will fall 11%.
Although China now consumes 28% of global agriculture and fisheries output, slower income growth and a declining population are contributing to the anticipated decline. Sub-Saharan Africa will make up 18% of the growth in global food consumption.
The report highlights the importance of international commodities trade for global food security, with 20% of food produced being traded in the global system.
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“Over the coming decade, the volumes of agricultural commodities traded globally are expected to increase between net exporting and net importing regions with regional shifts reflecting increased consumption in India and Southeast Asia,” said OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann.
Utilization of food, feed and fuel is projected to grow 1.1% annually. Calorie intake is expected to increase 7% in middle-income countries and 4% in low-income countries.
By 2033, poultry is expected to account for 43% of total meat consumption. Milk production is projected to grow by 1.6% per year with significant growth potential in India and Pakistan. Additionally, fish protein will increasingly come from aquaculture, which is anticipated to make up 55% of production methods by 2033.
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