Left-wing losses in elections for the European Parliament have boosted conservative political clout and signaled a potential shift away from the European Union's climate and energy policy goals.
The new EU legislative session, which will last from 2024-2029, will reveal the full impact of the elections when Parliament’s new term begins July 16. However, passing legislation to address climate change, especially through regulation of farm practices, is expected to become more challenging in the new session.
The European Commission, the EU'S governing arm, has set a goal of reducing greenhouse emissions by 55% by 2030 and becoming carbon neutral by 2050 as part of the Green Deal, some aspects of which have been implemented.
However, conservative members of the European Parliament "are likely to prioritize economic growth and energy security over more aggressive climate action. Europe’s commitment to global leadership on sustainability will remain, but the agenda will be reshaped to respond to some of these concerns,” Marjorie Chorlins, senior vice president of Europe for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, wrote in a blog post.
The election cycle reflected widespread concerns about the cost of environmental policies, heightened by months of farmer protests in Brussels and across Europe.
The proposal that worries farmers the most is the Farm to Fork strategy, which European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had been pushing to reduce chemical fertilizer and pesticide use. However, that strategy, whose future was in doubt before the elections, is likely more in danger now.
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In the face of widespread farmer protests, von der Leyen withdrew a legislative proposal that sought a significant reduction in pesticide use on the continent, Agri-Pulse reported back in February.
Also as a result of the protests, the new parliament will see an increase in agri-food representation. Out of eight parties, many with agricultural backgrounds now hold seats. Seventeen lawmakers from the center-right European People’s Party (EPP), 11 from the liberal Renew Europe group, and 10 from the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) all play active roles in the agri-food industry, according to an election analysis by the news site Euractiv. Members with such backgrounds are often tapped to play major roles in future environment commissions.
The recent surge of agri-food leaders running for parliament reflects a number of factors, including the impact of limiting tax benefits for diesel fuel users, more expensive inputs and pressure to reduce animal production.
“Europe’s drive to lead the world on sustainability generated a raft of heavy-handed new regulations in recent years, including unrealistic reporting requirements and emissions targets,” Chorlins wrote.
Food and agriculture account for about 11% of the Europe's greenhouse gas emissions through fertilizers, methane from cattle, and carbon dioxide from vehicles.
"The Green Deal is still Europe’s best tool to protect people, tackle the climate crisis, and future-proof our continent,” said Bas Eickhout, the Greens/Europeans Free Alliance party’s vice-president, in a post-election press release.
Over the past five years, the Green Party has been effective at building support for climate and energy policies, including adopting Green Deal legislation that puts the EU on track to achieve 2030 climate targets. The Green Deal also has required businesses to meet new climate disclosure standards and increased regulation on input use.
Future proposals on climate targets are expected, like additional updates to the Green Deal to reduce greenhouse emission by 90% by 2040.
In the recent election, the Green Party lost 18 seats, while right-wing parties both maintained and gained some ground in the parliament, which holds 720 seats from 27 member nations. The center-right European People’s Party has sought closer alignment with the European Conservatives and Reformist Group, making up almost 37% of parliament.
French President Emmanuel Macron has called for a snap parliamentary election following significant losses for his center-right party to the far-right National Rally in the EU elections. However, his efforts to reset party lines are being met with skepticism from political leaders.
EU Commission President von der Leyen, who is seeking a second term, is working to develop coalitions to create a working majority in the European Parliament.
After the elections, the largest political group in the Parliament usually proposes a lead candidate for EC President – one of the final steps in preparing for a new legislative session. Von der Leyen is part of the EPP, but if reelected, she is expected to seek a closer alliance with the populist right.
A movement like this, the European Council on Foreign Relations reports, “would significantly undermine the EU’s Green Deal framework and the adoption and enforcement of common policies to meet the EU’s net zero targets.”
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