Note to readers: Wednesday is a federal holiday for Juneteenth. Daybreak will return on Thursday.
The Congressional Budget Office is due to release its latest 10-year estimates for farm programs today. The new baseline isn’t expected to have any direct impact on the current farm bill discussions, but it could show whether lawmakers will face even greater budget challenges in the next Congress if they don’t get the legislation done this year.
House Ag Committee Chairman Glenn Thompson, R-Pa., was determined to get his bill out of committee in May to ensure that CBO scored its cost off the baseline released last spring, rather than the one due out today. That’s because the new baseline is expected to have projections that would make it more expensive to write the bill.
Biden links tariff plan to inflation
President Biden’s campaign is attacking former President Trump’s trade policy by suggesting his proposal for an across-the-board tariff on imported products could spur more inflation.
Biden has kept Trump’s tariffs on China intact, but Trump has been pushing for even higher tariffs as a way to protect U.S. industries, an issue he pitched in meetings with House Republicans last week. At the same time, the inflation issue continues to dog Biden’s re-election campaign, even though grocery prices in particular have moderated over the last year or so.
“Donald Trump has repeatedly touted his economic plan to increase tariffs on imports to offset tax cuts for the ultra-wealthy. The result is quite simple – increased costs for average Americans,” the Biden campaign said in a release Monday, which cited a Bloomberg News report on the impact of Trump’s tariff proposal.
This issue could resurface in the June 27 presidential debate.
Take note: The polling numbers continue to be rough for Biden.
The latest Des Moines Register poll in Iowa shows Trump up by 18 points, 50% to 32%. As rural as it is, Iowa was once a very purple state, carried twice by Barack Obama, and Bill Clinton and Al Gore before that. It’s now looking deep red. Pollster Ann Selzer is the gold standard in Iowa polling and considered one of the most reliable in the country.
The latest FiveThirtyEight average of polls has Trump up by just under a point nationally.
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Crop conditions much improved this spring
Major U.S. crops continue to look better this spring than they did a year ago. Some 73% of the nation’s corn crop is rated in good to excellent condition as of this year, up from 55% at this time a year ago, according to USDA’s latest Crop Progress report.
Seventy percent of the soybean crop is rated as good to excellent, compared to 54% a year ago.
Other crops are looking much better this spring, too. Some 54% of the cotton crop is rated as good to excellent, compared to 47% at this time last year. As for winter wheat, 49% is good to excellent this week, up from 38% a year ago.
Larger-than-average hypoxic zone expected in Gulf
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects to see a larger-than-average hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico this summer that will encompass an area around the size of Connecticut.
The hypoxic zone — projected by NOAA to cover approximately 5,827 square miles — is the result of excess nutrients, some of which come from fertilizer applied to farm fields, that flow down the Mississippi River and arrive in the Gulf of Mexico, where they fuel algae overgrowth. These algae can deplete oxygen in the water after they die and decompose.
NOAA’s hypoxic zone modeling is based off U.S. Geological Survey estimates that indicate nitrate and phosphorus loads on the river are around 7% below and 22% above long-term averages respectively.
Colorado recommends testing cows before livestock shows
Colorado's state veterinarian is recommending dairy producers isolate cows after attending any livestock shows and use biosecurity measures during events amid a string of outbreaks that has led to 10 facilities within the state being placed under quarantine.
The guidelines recommend livestock owners get their animals tested seven days before attending a livestock show, according to an emailed media release. In the case of any illnesses, livestock owners and event organizers should isolate animals and report sicknesses to veterinarians.
Colorado’s actions follow a similar announcement from Wisconsin’s Department of Agriculture,Trade and Consumer Protection requiring H5N1 testing before movement of lactating dairy cattle to fairs or exhibitions. The requirement goes into effect June 19.
Reapportionment process to reshuffle soybean board seats
The United Soybean Board would lose a North Dakota seat and pick up a New York member in 2025 under a reapportionment plan proposed by the Agricultural Marketing Service on Monday.
The total number of members on the board would remain at 77. The number of representatives from North Dakota would drop from four to three, while New York’s representation would double from one member to two.
Membership is determined based on soybean production data captured by the National Agricultural Statistics Service for the years 2018 to 2022.
Urban ag committee meeting next month
The Urban Agriculture and Innovative Production Advisory Committee will meet July 11 to discuss proposed recommendations to Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack on policies and outreach related to urban, indoor, and other emerging agriculture production practices.
The committee was established by the 2018 farm bill. Registration to speak at the meeting will open July 8, according to a Federal Register notice published today.
Correction: Monday’s Daybreak misidentified the home state of Rep. Andrea Salinas, D-Ore.
Noah Wicks and Philip Brasher contributed to this report.
