USDA on Friday projected higher ending stocks for major row crops that will be harvested this year as farmers deal with another decline in market prices.
The department’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for May included the first estimates of production, consumption and ending stocks for the 2024-25 marketing year.
USDA's projected farm-gate prices for the 2024-25 marketing year were unchanged from what USDA projected in its February baseline for corn, soybeans, wheat and sorghum, but the department significantly lowered its estimates for cotton and rice.
Ending stocks for corn are projected to rise 80 million bushels for the 2024-25 marketing year to 2.1 billion bushels, which would be the highest level since 2018-19. Farmers are expected to harvest 14.9 billion bushels of corn this year, a drop of 3% from 2023 largely because farmers are expected to cut back corn acreage.
Total U.S. corn usage is expected to rise by less than 1%, reflecting small increases in domestic consumption and exports, but the amount of corn going into ethanol is expected to remain unchanged at 5.45 billion bushels, "based on expectations of essentially flat motor gasoline consumption," USDA said.
The average farm-gate price is expected to fall 25 cents a bushel to $4.40 for 2024-25. The average for 2022-23 was $6.54 a bushel.
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Ending stocks for soybeans are estimated to be up 105 million bushels from last year to 445 million bushels for the 2024-25 marketing year as farmers boost production by 285 million bushels to an estimated 4.45 billion. Soybean prices are expected to average $11.20 for the 2024 crop, down from $12.55 for 2023-24 and $14.20 in 2022-23.
Ending stocks for wheat are expected to hit 766 million bushels for 2024-25, an 11% increase over last year and the highest level in four years.The average price of wheat is expected to drop $1.10 a bushel to $7.10. The average for 2022-23 was $8.83, reflecting the price spikes that occurred around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
CME futures prices were higher for corn, soybeans and wheat following the report's release Friday. The trade had expected the ending stocks numbers for corn and wheat to be higher than USDA projected, according to Reuters. The soybean stocks forecast came in higher than the trade expected.
Other projections in the USDA report:
- Cotton: The average price is expected to be 74 cents a pound, down from 76 cents in 2023-24. In February, USDA had estimated the 2024-25 price at 80 cents a pound. Production is estimated at 16 million bales, up from 12.07 million, with ending stocks increasing to 3.7 million bales, up from 2.4 million.
- Rice: Average price for all rice is expected to fall to $15.60 per hundredweight, down from $18, with production rising to 220.2 million hundredweight, up from 218.3 million, and ending stocks increasing to 45.5 million hundredweight, up from 40.8 million. In February, USDA projected the 2024-25 average price to be $16.80 per hundredweight.
- Sorghum: Production is expected to rise to 70 million bushels to 388 million, with ending stocks increasing 13 million bushels to 35 million. Average price is projected to fall to $4.40 a bushel, down 50 cents from 2023-24.
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