Almond growers continue to struggle with low prices, inflationary costs, shipping delays, regulatory hurdles and many other issues. But Almond Alliance Presient and CEO Aubrey Bettencourt is looking to tap into a massive demand potential as retaliatory tariffs ease and new markets emerge.
At the World Ag Expo in Tulare last week, Bettencourt detailed the advocacy group’s strategy going forward. She pointed to a recent report from the RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness group projecting a strong rebound in prices in the next 12 to 18 months, with the inventory backlog dropping to a normal carry-in. The industry is also seeing some changes in growing patterns, with a reduction in bearing acreage this year.
“There's no hysterics here,” she told farmers in a seminar session. “The industry is going through change and, as we all know as growers, we're farming a little bit differently in light of a lot of different pressures.”
She pointed out that almonds are the fourth-largest agricultural export for the U.S. India is the top destination and on pace to usurp the domestic market as the largest consumer. But retaliatory tariffs—which peaked at 100% but have leveled off to 30%—have slowed the rate of growth for shipments to that country.
Bettencourt called China “the sleeping potential everybody wants more access to.” Despite retaliatory tariffs here, almond exporters have hit record numbers for shipments over the last five years—which speaks to the growth potential if China “takes those handcuffs off.”
Turkey, however, increased tariffs soon after India lowered theirs. The Middle East is one of the top four markets for almonds and tangential to several important markets, explained Bettencourt. The alliance has been putting pressure on the Biden administration to get the tariff reduced. She lamented that the administration has been painfully slow in negotiating agreements.
With nontariff barriers, the green revolution in Europe has been slowing down with recent changes in political dynamics. This has led to less pressure on use of the controversial herbicide glyphosate. Farmer protests over the pace and requirements in new climate policies for the European Union are opening conversations about easing import standards as well, according to Bettencourt.
She touted the Almond Board of California for representing the only commodity allowed on a recent trade mission to Morocco, an emerging market with large growth potential. Technical experts from the federal marketing order are working with the Moroccan government to expand market development and hopefully avoid nontariff barriers, she explained.
With its growing influence in Washington, D.C., the Almond Alliance has joined the ranks of the traditional commodity groups—such as corn, wheat and soy—that have long dominated trade discussions. The alliance is an executive member in the coalition Farmers for Free Trade and two of its member farmers have seats on the new Congressional Agricultural Trade Caucus.
“We feel strategically that if the administration is holding its line and sticking to its guns, sometimes the only way we can make them jump is we’ve got to put pressure on them from somewhere else,” said Bettencourt. “We've seen great success by leveraging members of the same party—as well as members from across the aisle—in putting pressure and really getting in front of the administration.”
As with many commodities, the almond industry would like to see any sort of trade agreements at this point, whether it is free trade or direct. But Bettencourt has seen more success by “going out and carving our own” path for almonds. The alliance and the board are leveraging marketing campaigns that expound on the tree nut’s benefits as a shelf-stable protein and an “extremely versatile” ingredient, with more than 16 forms of almonds.
That combination of nutrient density and shelf life has also led NASA to lean on almonds as a preferred food for the International Space Station and it is a selling point for potential acceptance into the USAID program as well as for disaster response. The alliance helped to send 90,000 pounds of almonds and pistachios to Maui following devastating fires last year.
“Not to brag, but it's a badass little nut,” she said.
Yet issues in California could set up further export hurdles at a vulnerable time. With 500 million pounds of carry-in, the inventory has improved from the 800 million pounds last year. But Bettencourt worries about another worker strike at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles.
“If we keep moving 200 million pounds-plus a month, we're in good shape,” she said. “If we have a strike at the port and we're down for a day, we're out for a week to two weeks.”
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The alliance built more resilience in the supply chain after post-pandemic port congestion disrupted shipments and it maintains its access to freight lines reaching out-of-state ports to diversify its export options.
Almond growers are adopting innovative practices to balance new regulations as well. With up to a million acres of farmland in the San Joaquin Valley falling out of production due to the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, “farmers are now having to think about how we farm and how we can farm differently,” she said. Orchard lives, for one, will be shorter, with farmers pulling trees as soon as production slows, rather than waiting 25 years.
For orchards in critically overdrafted basins, open ground will be an asset, she explained. It draws more flexibility with management practices, allowing for pumping credits that can keep the other trees or more valuable crops productive. When surface water is available and prices are good, tomatoes could be a money maker on that ground. It also helps to avoid permanent fallowing.
“Permanent crop farmers almost have to think like rotational crop farmers—but it's decadal rotations,” she said.
The alliance has been working with the Air Resources Board and CDFA to minimize the number of abandoned acres, since that can lead to dust and invasive species issues and create more reliance on riskier pesticides that face political scrutiny.
Bettencourt has been pushing back on the narrative that almond growers export valuable California water. In an opinion piece last week for the conservative news site California Globe, she explained that the industry has adopted a zero-waste philosophy. She argued that “outdated critiques” and “pithy talking points from urban elites” fail to recognize the environmental benefits of almonds, particularly with carbon sequestration.
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