USDA is forecasting lower prices for most major crops this year as input costs remain elevated and farmers face growing export competition.
Prices for beef, pork and broiler chickens are expected to inch slightly higher, according to USDA’s annual forecast for the farm economy released Thursday during the department’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum.
USDA also projects that farmers will trim their corn, wheat and sorghum acreage and plant more cotton and soybeans.
The price of corn is expected to fall 8.3% to $4.40 a bushel for the 2024 crop. Soybean prices are expected to average $11.20 a bushel, down 11.5%, and wheat prices are projected to fall 16.7% to $6 a bushel.
Cotton prices are expected to average 80 cents a pound in 2024, up 3 cents from last year. Sorghum prices are forecast at $4.40 a bushel, down 45 cents from 2023. Rice prices are estimated to average $16.80 per hundredweight, a drop of $1.60 from 2023.
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Farmers are expected to plant 91 million acres of corn this spring, a decline of 3.8%, or 3.6 million acres, from last year, and 87.5 million acres of soybeans, a 4.7% increase from the 83.6 million acres seeded in 2023.
Wheat growers are expected to plant 47 million acres of that crop, a decrease of 2.6 million acres, or 5.2% from 2023.
Cotton acreage is estimated at 10.85 million acres, an increase of 750,000 acres, or 7.4%, from last year. Sorghum acreage is forecast down 200,000 acres to 7 million, a 2.8% decrease. Rice acreage is expected to be the same as 2023 at 2.9 million acres.
USDA’s chief economist, Seth Meyer, said U.S. agriculture is entering a period where prices “normalize” but “input prices tend to be pretty sticky.”
“You go through periods where you make some money, and that is necessary to get you through the times that maybe it's a little bit more lean,” Meyer said.
He warned that increased production of corn and soybeans in South America is going to continue to challenge U.S. farmers in export markets.
"Other countries have also stepped up and are producing more … We've got more competition in the global market, but we need that trade to continue to grow," he said.
The cattle industry continues to contract after three years of drought in the West and Plains, and cattle prices are expected to rise again to $180 a hundredweight in 2024, up 2.5% from 2023. The price of cattle bottomed out at $108.51 in 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
Hog prices are forecast up 2.4% to $60 per hundredweight, and broiler prices are forecast at $1.27 per pound, up 2.1%.
Egg prices, which continue to fall from the spikes caused by the avian influenza outbreak in 2022, are expected to average $1.83 per dozen, down from $1.92 in 2023 and $2.82 in 2022.
The average price for milk is forecast to rise only slightly this year to $20.95 per hundredweight, compared to $20.48 in 2023. The average price in 2022 was $25.34.
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