Lower turkey prices this year will help soften the cost of preparing Thanksgiving dinner this year compared to 2022, with the total price of the food down 4.5% to 9%, according to a pair of surveys.
An annual survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation released Wednesday estimates the average cost of a meal for 10 will be $61.17, or less than $6.20 per person. This is a 4.5% decrease from last year’s record average of $64.05. This year's Thanksgiving meal will still cost 25% more than it did in 2019, which the Farm Bureau said "highlights the impact high supply costs and inflation have had on food prices since before the pandemic."
Purdue’s monthly Consumer Food Insights Report estimates the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner will be about 9% lower than last year, with the price of turkey down 50 cents per pound.
AFBF says the average price of a 16-pound turkey this year is $27.35, or $1.71 per pound, down 5.6% from last year.
“Traditionally, the turkey is the most expensive item on the Thanksgiving dinner table,” said AFBF Senior Economist Veronica Nigh. “Turkey prices have fallen thanks to a sharp reduction in cases of avian influenza, which have allowed production to increase in time for the holiday.”
Farm Bureau’s survey used volunteer shoppers from Nov. 1-6 before many grocery stores began marketing frozen turkeys at lower prices. The feature price for whole turkeys declined the second week in November, according to USDA data.
“Consumers who have not yet purchased a turkey may find additional savings in the days leading up to Thanksgiving,” AFBF said.
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The shopping list for Farm Bureau’s informal survey includes turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls with butter, peas, cranberries, a veggie tray, and pumpkin pie with whipped cream, all in quantities sufficient to serve a family of 10 with plenty of leftovers.
Other average prices in the AFBF survey:
- 14-ounces of cubed stuffing mix: $3.77 (down 2.8%)
- Two frozen pie crusts: $3.50 (down 4.9%)
- Half pint of whipping cream: $1.73 (down 22.8%)
- A pound of frozen peas: $1.88 (down 1.1%)
- A dozen dinner rolls: $3.84 (up 2.9%)
- Misc. ingredients to prepare the meal: $3.95 (down 4.4%)
- 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix: $4.44 (up 3.7%)
- A gallon of whole milk: $3.74 (down 2.6%)
- Three pounds of sweet potatoes: $3.97 (up .3%)
- One-pound veggie tray (carrots & celery): $.90 (up 2.3%)
- 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries: $2.10 (down 18.3%)
In recognition of changes in Thanksgiving dinner traditions, the Farm Bureau price survey also includes boneless ham, Russet potatoes and frozen green beans, in an expanded menu. Adding these foods to the classic Thanksgiving menu would increase the overall cost by $23.58, to $84.75, AFBF says.
AFBF’s analysis found regional differences in the cost of the meal. “The cost for the classic meal was the most affordable in the Midwest - $58.66, followed by the South - $59.10, the West - $63.89, and the Northeast - $64.38. The expanded meal (classic meal plus boneless ham, Russet potatoes and green beans) was the most affordable in the Midwest - $81.83, the South - $82.61, the West - $87.75, and the Northeast - $88.43,” AFBF said.
The Purdue survey also details the variations in spending by region, likely because of differences in the cost of living. Average weekly spending is highest in the Northeast region ($201) and lowest in the Midwest ($177). “Notably, average weekly spending between January and October 2023 rose more than $10 in the Midwest, South and Northeast regions compared to 2022,” Purdue reported.
There also are regional differences in the frequency that certain foods would be on the table this Thanksgiving, said Elijah Bryant, a survey research analyst at the center and co-author of the Purdue report. The report found 95% of respondents plan to celebrate with a turkey, while ham is also popular in the South.
“While Thanksgiving staples like turkey, green beans, gravy and stuffing will be common meal components in all regions, items such as cornbread, ham and macaroni and cheese are more likely to be a part of meals in the South compared to the other three regions,” Bryant said.
“We found that 79% of consumers plan on celebrating the holiday with a Thanksgiving meal while 13% do not and 9% are unsure,” said Purdue’s report’s lead author, Joseph Balagtas, professor of agricultural economics at Purdue and director of Center for Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability.
Some 37% of those surveyed plan to host a Thanksgiving dinner, 43% visit a friend or relative for Thanksgiving and 5% plan to eat out.
Balagtas said their survey suggests food price inflation is still “top of mind for consumers.”
Supermarket prices are 2.1% higher than they were a year ago, according to the latest Consumer Price Index, released Tuesday.
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