The Senate Agriculture Committee is digging into the potential for artificial intelligence in agriculture. The committee has set a hearing for next Tuesday on AI and ag technology, and the witnesses will include Jahmy Hindman, the chief technology officer for Deere and Co.
Mason Earles from the AI Institute for Next-Generation Food Systems at the University of California, Davis, also will be testifying.
USDA sees commodity prices easing
USDA is out with its latest 10-year projections for farm commodities. Department economists expect the price of corn to average about $4.50 a bushel for the 2024 crop – down from $4.95 this year - and then level off at $4.30. USDA expects farmers to plant about 91 million acres of corn, down from 94.9 million acres this year.
Soybean prices are projected at $11.30/bushel next year, “continuing a downward adjustment from the near-record” $14.20 farmers saw on their 2022 crop. Soybean prices are expected to level out at about $10.50 bushel.
Wheat prices are projected to average $6.80 a bushel for next year’s crop and then flatten out at about $6.
Keep in mind: Those projected prices for 2024 are a bit lower than what the department had in its February baseline. But they would still be above the reference prices that trigger payments under the Price Loss Coverage program, even with an escalator provision that will kick in next year for some crops. Economists at the University of Missouri estimate the effective reference price for corn will be about $4.01 a bushel for corn and $9.26 for soybeans for 2024 crops.
The latest USDA projections will be updated in February.
By the way: Input costs continue to worry farmers as they look to 2024.
According to the monthly Ag Economy Barometer from Purdue University and the CME Group, 36% of farmers surveyed in October said higher input costs were their largest concern heading into next year.
Some 25% said rising interest rates, while 18% said lower crop and livestock prices. Only 4% said farm policy.
House chairman seeks USDA’s chlorpyrifos documents
Chlorpyrifos is definitely in the news. Last week, a federal appeals court gave the green light to renewed use of the product – which does not necessarily mean it will be available next season. Now, a prominent House congressman is seeking information from USDA on its interactions with EPA regarding the insecticide.
House Oversight and Accountability Chairman James Comer is asking Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack for all correspondence between the two agencies on the subject of EPA’s 2021 proposal to revoke food tolerances and pull the registration for the organophosphate insecticide.
Comer cites a 2022 letter from USDA’s Office of Pest Management Policy telling EPA it was setting a “harmful precedent” by proceeding with its notice of intent to cancel the registration.
Comer is giving USDA until Nov. 21 to produce the documents.
For more on the potential impact of the chlorpyrifos ruling, check out the Agri-Pulse weekly newsletter today.
Food inflation slows heading into holiday season
Supermarket shoppers should see less inflation at the store heading into this holiday season than they saw a year ago, says Leslie Sarasin, president and CEO of FMI – The Food Industry Association, which represents major retailers.
“The overall economy, as well as the price of food at the grocery store, seems to be recalibrating, which is excellent news,” Sarasin said Tuesday. “Prices do remain elevated, causing an understandable concern for shoppers who are worried about inflation and affordability” heading into the holiday shopping season.
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USDA estimates that grocery prices will be up about 5.1% this year, well off last year’s 11.4% inflation rate. For 2024, USDA expects prices to rise by only 1%.
US ethanol registers strong exports in September
U.S. ethanol exports bounced back in September after falling off in August, according to the latest trade data compiled by the Renewable Fuels Association. The U.S. exported 120.5 million gallons in September, an 18% increase from August, which registered the first monthly decline in four months.
Canada was again the largest destination for U.S. ethanol, but shipments across the northern border were actually down by 3%. Other, smaller markets pushed the overall increase for September exports. Oman imported 7.8 million gallons – its largest purchases in four years – and Mexico imported 5.5 million gallons, a 167% increase from August as well as a five-month high.
Russia bombs Odesa port infrastructure again
Russia has again targeted Ukrainian port facilities in Odesa this week, hitting “warehouses, special unloading equipment, and cars with grain,” according to the consulting firm APK Inform, which reported on Telegram updates by Oleg Kiper, head of the Regional Department of Odesa.
Why it’s important: Ukraine is using its largest ports in the Odesa region to export grain despite the danger, and the collapse in July of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a United Nations-led effort to ensure the safety of grain exports despite the ongoing war.
Thirty-four ships carrying 724,000 corn, wheat, soybeans and sunflower seed oil departed the three Odesa ports in August, according to APK Inform. Turkey and South Korea were the primary destinations.
He said it. “If it isn't done by the last of July, you're going to have another one-year extension, I would guess.” – Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, telling reporters that Congress likely only has until next summer to finish a new farm bill, given that it’s an election year.
Bill Tomson, Steve Davies and Jacqui Fatka contributed to this report.
