It looks like Brazil will export more corn than the U.S. in the current marketing year and the next, according to USDA forecasts, but sustainability, environmental and economic issues may soon pose problems for the South American ag powerhouse, according to an analysis released Wednesday by the National Corn Growers Association.
“While Brazil is positioned to surpass the U.S. in corn exports this year, the data don’t indicate the trend leading to this development will necessarily continue, as the South American country faces many challenges when it comes to agriculture and trade,” NCGA said in the document.
Still, USDA left its forecast for Brazilian corn exports in the 2023-24 marketing year unchanged at 55 million metric tons in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. The forecast for U.S. exports is 53.34 million tons.
That would make it the second straight year Brazil exports more corn than the U.S.
Brazil’s corn production has risen sharply in recent years. Farmers there produced about 3.2 billion bushels of corn a decade ago for the 2013-14 marketing year, meaning the country has increased production by 63% over the past 10 years.
Much of that increase has come in Brazil’s “safrinha,” the second crop farmers plant after they harvest their soybeans, but a good chunk also came from converting “natural vegetation,” says NGCA.
That practice, however, has become controversial.
“Cropland can continue to expand into existing pasture, but deforestation has slowed and continued efforts to maintain valuable rainforest are critical to global sustainability,” says the NCGA analysis. “In the United States, farmers continue to increase productivity of corn over time with a finite land area.”
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Brazilian farmers are also paying a steep price for their rapid rise in corn production.
“According to USDA’s international agricultural productivity data, farmers in the U.S. increased fertilizer use by 4.1% from 2015 to 2020, while farmers in Brazil increased fertilizer use by 32.8% in the same period,” says the NCGA analysis. “In 2020, farmers in Brazil used 112% more fertilizer per hectare than U.S. farmers to provide the extra fertility needed to grow multiple crops in a year.”
And as to the future, Brazil’s corn production is bound to run into problems, the report says.
Brazilian cropland "can continue to expand into existing pasture, but deforestation has slowed and continued efforts to maintain valuable rainforest are critical to global sustainability," it says. "In the United States, farmers continue to increase productivity of corn over time with a finite land area.”
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