USDA reports crop production slightly down, as predicted

WASHINGTON, Nov. 9- Corn and soybean production are down from last month’s forecast, according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) monthly crop report issued this morning. This morning’s USDA reports held little surprises, with estimates near those made by forecasters. Corn production, yield and demand are lowered from last month, as are sizes in soybean and grain supplies. 

Corn

U.S. corn production is down one percent, with total corn production forecast at 12.3 billion bushels. Corn yields are expected to average 146.7 bushels per acre, down 1.4 bushels from the October forecast and down 6.1 bushels from 2010. If realized, the NASS report indicates this will be the lowest average yield since 2003.

These estimates are not extremely far from most forecasters' predictions for corn supplies. For example, Informa Economics estimated corn production at 12.55 billion bushels, but also estimated US corn yields higher and unchanged from last month at 149.5 bushels per acre.

Soybean

Soybean production is forecast at 3.05 billion bushels, down slightly from the October forecast and down 9 percent from last year.

The U.S. season-average soybean price range is projected at $11.60 to $13.60 per bushel, down 55 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $310 to $340 per short ton, down $25.00 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 53 to 57 cents per pound, unchanged from last month.

Changes reported in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) for 2010/11 include reduced soybean oil production and ending stocks. These changes are based on industry indications of soybean crush and soybean oil stocks. Soybean meal production and domestic use for 2010/11 are also reduced due to lower October-September year crush. WASDE indicated that changes in soybean meal for 2011/12 include reduced domestic use and higher exports.

Cotton

All cotton production is forecast at 16.3 million 480-pound bales, down 2 percent from the October forecast and down 10 percent from last year.

The 2011/12 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates show lower production, exports, and ending stocks this month. Production is reduced more than 300,000 bales due to decreases in Texas and the Southeast, according to WASDE. Domestic mill use is unchanged from last month, but exports are reduced 200,000 bales, according to the WASDE report released this morning. 

All cotton production is forecast at 16.3 million 480-pound bales, down 2 percent from the October forecast and down 10 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 794 pounds per harvested acre, down 18 pounds from last year.

Rice

USDA predicts a rise in rice production. According to WASDE, U.S. rice production in 2011/12 is forecast at 188.1 million cwt, which is 1.2 million above last month due to an increase in yield. Average all rice yield is estimated at 7,167 pounds per acre, up 44 pounds from last month, and the second highest yield on record.

On a global scale, rice supply and use are lowered from a month ago. Thailand’s 2011/12 rice crop is lowered nearly a million tons as losses in the main-season crop from recent flooding are partially offset by an expected re-planting of some of the main season crop in the Northern Region along with an expected record dry-season crop. Flooding also lowered crop prospects in Burma, Cambodia, and Laos. WASDE also reported that China’s 2011/12 rice crop is raised two million tons to a record 141 million, due to an increase in harvested area.  WASDE indicates the increase in global rice consumption is due mostly to an increase for China.

For the entire contents of this morning’s crop reports, go to http://usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/usdahome?navid=AGENCY_REPORTS

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