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WASHINGTON,
Feb. 8, 2013 – The season-average farm prices for wheat and corn are reduced,
but soybean prices are increased, in this month’s World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates report released by USDA today. Analysts raised corn ending stocks, reflecting less usage and slightly higher corn output projections in South America. U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2012-2013 are projected at 125 million bushels, down 10 million from last month due to increased crush.
Summarized
information on prices, production, and exports from the report is below:
Wheat: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are
projected 25 million bushels lower this month with higher expected feed and
residual disappearance. Feed and residual use is projected 25 million bushels
higher as weaker cash prices relative to corn support opportunities for
increased wheat use in livestock and poultry rations.Feed and
residual use is raised 10 million bushels each for Hard Red Winter (HRW) and
Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat, and raised five million bushels for White wheat.Projected
all-wheat exports are unchanged, but HRW and Hard Red Spring wheat are lowered
25 million bushels and 5 million bushels, respectively.Offsetting
these reductions are projected increases in SRW and White wheat exports of 25
million bushels and 5 million bushels, respectively. The
projected season- average farm price for wheat is narrowed 5 cents on both ends
of the range to $7.70 to $8.10 per bushel.Global
wheat supplies for 2012/13 are nearly unchanged with a small increase in
beginning stocks more than offsetting a small decrease in production. Global
wheat output is projected 0.7 million tons lower. Production is lowered for
Kazakhstan and Brazil, but raised for Ukraine, South Africa, and Belarus.
Corn: The projected range for the
season-average farm price for corn is lowered 20 cents at the midpoint and
narrowed to $6.75 to $7.65 per bushel. Corn exports are projected 50 million
bushels lower based on the sluggish pace of sales and shipments to date and
prospects for more competition from Brazil. Corn use for ethanol production is
unchanged, but corn use for sweeteners and starch is raised 20 million bushels,
boosting projected food, seed, and industrial use. Projected corn ending stocks
are raised 30 million bushels.“Reported
monthly prices received by farmers to date continue to reflect forward sales
made at prices below prevailing cash market bids,” the report said.Global
corn production for 2012/13 is raised 2.1 million tons with increases for
Brazil, Mexico, India, and Ukraine more than offsetting a reduction for
Argentina.Brazil production is raised
1.5 million tons based on higher reported area and yields for the first-season
crop and good early prospects for second-season corn.Mexico production is increased 0.8 million
tons with higher reported area for the summer crop. Production is raised 0.6
million tons for India on higher area as indicated by the latest sowing
progress reports. Ukraine production is increased 0.4 million tons on higher
reported yields. Argentina production is lowered 1.0 million tons as persistent
dryness in January and early February lowers yield prospects, particularly for
late-planted corn.
Oilseeds: The U.S. season-average soybean price
range for 2012/13 is projected at $13.55 to $15.05 per bushel, up 5 cents on
both ends of the range.The soybean meal
price is projected at $430 to $460 per short ton, unchanged from last
month.The soybean oil price projection
is also unchanged at 49 to 53 cents per pound.U.S.
soybean ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 125 million bushels, down 10
million from last month due to increased crush. Soybean crush is raised 10
million bushels to 1.615 billion reflecting both larger soybean meal exports
and domestic use.Strong
U.S. soybean meal exports during the first half of the marketing year are
partly offsetting declining shipments from Argentina where crushing has slowed
due to limited soybean supplies. Domestic soybean meal use is raised in line
with projected gains in meat production. Soybean oil production is raised on
higher soybean crush and a higher soybean oil extraction rate. Soybean oil
exports are projected at 2.3 billion pounds, up 150 million from last month as
sales continue stronger than expected.Global
oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 466.9 million tons, up 1.1
million from last month.Global soybean
production is raised fractionally to 269.5 million tons as improved production
prospects in Brazil offset deteriorating conditions in Argentina.Soybean production for Brazil is projected at
a record 83.5 million tons, up 1 million from last month due to higher yields
resulting from improved moisture in the center-west.
Rice: Slight revisions are made to the U.S. all
rice and rice-by-class supply and use balance sheets. U.S. 2012/13 total rice
supplies are raised slightly because of an increase in imports. Beginning
stocks and production are unchanged from a month ago.Long-grain imports are raised 0.5 million
cwt. to a record 18.5 million, and combined medium- and short-grain imports are
unchanged at 2.5 million.
Sugar: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal
year 2012/13 is increased 65,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, due to
higher sugar production more than offsetting lower imports. Louisiana cane
sugar and U.S. beet sugar production estimates are increased in line with
reports from processors, and increased shortfall in filling the tariff rate
quota accounts for reduced imports. Sugar use is unchanged.
Livestock, Poultry, Dairy: The 2013 forecast of
total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month reflecting
higher forecast beef, pork, broiler, and turkey production. Beef production is
raised based mostly on heavier carcass weights. The beef production forecast is
also raised as cow slaughter in the first quarter is expected to be relatively
high. Pork production is raised as carcass weights are expected to reflect more
moderate feed costs. The beef
export forecast for 2013 is unchanged as trade restrictions by Russia are
offset by gains to Japan and other markets. Pork exports are lowered on trade
restrictions imposed by Russia although there is expected to be some offset in
higher exports to other markets. Poultry is raised based on
larger-than-expected November shipments.Cattle,
hog, and turkey prices for 2013 are unchanged from last month. Broiler and egg
prices are raised on expected demand strength in 2013.The milk
production forecast for 2013 is raised. Milk cow numbers are raised as USDA’s
Cattle report indicated that the number of cows on Jan. 1 was about unchanged
from 2012. Milk production estimates for 2012 are raised, reflecting
end-of-year production data. Dairy trade estimates for 2012 reflect the pace of
trade through November. Cheese prices are unchanged from last month, but the
price range is narrowed.Cotton: The 2012/13 U.S. cotton forecasts
include higher exports and lower ending stocks relative to last month.
Estimates of production and domestic mill use are unchanged. Exports are raised
slightly to 12.5 million bales, due mainly to an increase in projected imports
by China. Ending stocks are forecast at 4.5 million bales, accounting for 28
percent of total disappearance. The forecast range for the marketing year
average price received by producers of 69-73 cents per pound is raised 3 cents
on the lower end and 2 cents on the upper end of the range, reflecting a sharp
increase in the price received for December.The
aggregate world 2012/13 production, consumption, and stocks forecasts show only
slight revisions this month, but increases in China’s production and imports
are raising the expected concentration of stocks there.
#30
For more news, go to www.agri-pulse.com