Crop Production report: Corn and soybean production down

October 12, 2011
Agri-Pulse staff
WASHINGTON, Oct. 12- Corn and soybean production are down one percent from September forecasts, according to USDA’s 2011 crop production report released this morning. Cotton production is up slightly, as well as orange production, which is up one percent from last season. 
 
In anticipation of today’s report, corn and soybean prices traded up on the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday. Corn was up 40 cents per bushel to its limit at $6.44. Soybeans were up 57 cents per bushel to $12.37.
 
According the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report also released this morning, projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are raised 76 million bushels as lower expected domestic use and exports offset reduced production. Production is lowered 69 million bushels, mostly reflecting lower spring wheat output as estimated in the September 30 Small Grains report. U.S. wheat exports for 2011/12 are projected 50 million bushels lower. 
 
Also, U.S. feed grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected higher this month. Corn production is forecast 64 million bushels lower with planted and harvested area lowered 385,000 acres and 452,000 acres, respectively. Estimates of China’s 2009/10 and 2010/11 corn production are raised 6.0 million tons and 4.2 million tons, respectively, in line with data from the China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), according to report. 
 
U.S. rice production in 2011/12 is down 4.0 million cwt from last month and is the smallest crop since 1998/99. The report said the decline is entirely due to a decrease in yield.
 

The following information was included in this morning’s Crop Production report:

Corn: Corn production is forecast at 12.4 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the September forecast and down slightly from the 2010 production estimate. If realized, this will be the fourth largest production total on record for the United States. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 148.1 bushels per acre, unchanged from the September forecast but down 4.7 bushels from 2010. If realized, this will be the lowest average yield since 2005. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 83.9 million acres, down 1 percent from the September forecast. Acreage updates were made in several States based on administrative data.

Soybean: Soybean production is forecast at 3.06 billion bushels, down 1 percent from September and down 8 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 41.5 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushel from last month and down 2 bushels from last year. If realized, the average yield will be the second lowest since 2003. Area for harvest is forecast at 73.7 million acres, down slightly from September and down 4 percent from 2010.

Cotton: All cotton production is forecast at 16.6 million 480-pound bales, up slightly from last month but down 8 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 809 pounds per harvested acre, down 3 pounds from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 15.9 million 480-pound bales, down 10 percent from 2010. American Pima production, forecast at 737,200 bales, was carried forward from last month.

Oranges: The United States all orange forecast for the 2011-2012 season is 8.99 million tons, up 1 percent from the 2010-2011 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 147 million boxes (6.62 million tons), is up 5 percent from last season’s final utilization.

“Weather conditions in Florida during early 2011 were characterized by drought conditions covering the majority of the citrus growing region,” according to the report. “Seasonal showers in August and September brought relief to some growers. Average fruit per tree is projected to be 3 percent lower than last season. California’s Navel orange crop continued to develop slightly behind schedule, with harvest expected to begin in November.”

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