FMD outbreak could top $100B in damages, studies show
WASHINGTON, Oct. 5, 2016 - A catastrophic hit on the U.S.
livestock industry has been a cautionary talking point as ag groups push for
expanded foot-and-mouth disease preparedness, but what would a U.S. outbreak of
the disease really look like?
The last outbreak of FMD in the U.S. was back in 1929, but it’s
on endemic status in many countries, particularly in Africa, Asia and the
Middle East. This year alone, there have been 20 cases in South Korea, according to the
Paris-based World Organization for Animal Health, which goes by the French
acronym OIE. Aside from talk about importing
beef from Argentina and Brazil, most of the FMD conversation in the U.S.
has been calls from the National Pork Producers Council to boost funding for an
improved vaccine bank should an FMD outbreak happen stateside.
NPPC and other livestock trade groups are concerned that an
FMD outbreak in the U.S. would present an unprecedented challenge to the
livestock industry, one that might be mitigated somewhat if enough animals
could be vaccinated in time.
A study
from 2015 was commissioned to determine what would happen in the hypothetical
scenario that FMD were to escape from the National Bio and Agro-Defense Facility,
a planned structure on the Kansas State University campus expected to be
operational by 2023. That study took into account a number of potential methods
of FMD transference (a tornado, for example), and found that costs could be as
high as $139.5 billion. Another study
had the costs as high as $187.8 billion. (Current research into FMD is
conducted at the Plum Island Animal Disease Center, a federal facility off the
Long Island coast.)
By comparison, the 2014-2015 outbreak of highly pathogenic
avian influenza in the poultry industry – the largest animal health disaster in
U.S. history – was
estimated to have economy-wide losses of $3.3 billion by the Congressional Research Service.
But there’s something to note about those FMD studies – they
were regional, not national. Both take a look at similar regions stretching from
Texas to South Dakota and their bordering states. That includes the majority of
the cattle and hog feeding regions in the U.S., but it excludes populations
like the pigs in North Carolina and dairy cattle in California and Wisconsin.
So as high as the numbers might be, Kansas State University Associate Professor
Dustin Pendell says they could be higher.
“There’s really no study that’s doing a nationwide
(outlook),” Pendell, a co-author of both studies, told Agri-Pulse. He said as
data collection and computing power improve, it’s been possible to gauge
broader regional impacts, but he wasn’t aware of a study that takes every
cloven-hooved animal in the country into account.
What’s more, the immediate losses wouldn’t be the total
losses. As evidenced by the first occurrence of mad cow disease in the U.S. in
2003, some trade barriers are slower to dissolve than others. China only
recently announced intentions to allow imports of U.S. beef almost 13 years
after the detection. Pendell said both FMD studies accounted for an immediate
loss of 95 percent of international trade lasting for three months after the
outbreak and then trade gradually returning to pre-outbreak levels over a
two-year span.
While there’s no denying the severity of the threat of FMD, there’s
also no denying that a vaccine bank on par with NPPC’s goals is a pricey
request. NPPC Chief Veterinarian Liz Wagstrom told reporters in September that
NPPC feels the money for an expanded vaccine bank “cannot come out of existing
veterinary services funds,” meaning this is a request for up to $150 million in
new money.
A spokeswoman for
USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service says they estimate a cost of
$125 million for purchase and storage for 25 million doses of vaccine
concentrate for the 10 highest priority strains of the disease at an average of
50 cents per dose. However, she noted that the concentrate has a five-year
shelf life, requiring continued investment to replace expired concentrate.
In theory, the money would go toward contracting for
increased vaccine production capacity and the ability to protect against more
strains of the disease. NPPC President John Weber said they’re aware of 23
active FMD strains, but current U.S. vaccine stockpiles, located at the Plum
Island Animal Disease Center in New York, are good against seven strains.
On the plus side, Weber says their lobbying efforts to rally
support for their funding proposal have received “little or no opposition” and
NPPC hopes to add this to the next farm bill. NPPC is doing most of the
lobbying on the issue now, but a livestock industry source tells Agri-Pulse
that when the time comes, more organizations will join the push.
In addition to the U.S., 66 other OIE member countries are
considered free of FMD without the use of a vaccine.
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