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Annual production capacity of HEFA renewable diesel plants
The production capacity for renewable diesel in the U.S. has significantly increased in recent years, rising by over 3 billion gallons since 2021.
While numerous new renewable diesel plants have been announced, the profitability of the industry has dropped due to production levels exceeding the demand limits set by the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard. This oversupply, referred to as the "RIN cliff," has raised concerns about the future of the renewable diesel boom.
As you can see on this chart, renewable diesel production is expected to be 4.3 billion gallons in 2023, 5.1 billion gallons in 2024, and 5.2 billion gallons in 2025. These estimates show a more cautious outlook compared to previous forecasts because of less demand from industry, and an uncertainty about the content included in the future Clean Fuels Production Tax credit decision due by the end of the year.
Looking ahead, there are significant announcements for new renewable diesel plants in the U.S. in 2027 and beyond, with a total potential capacity of nearly 2.9 billion gallons. These additional plants could increase existing capacity by more than 50%. However, much of that could change, depending on federal regulations and tax incentives.
To learn more about "Map it Out" and "Ag By the Numbers," check out our Newsmakers show.
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